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Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Tamura

    (Ibaraki University)

  • Naoko Kumano

    (Ehime University)

  • Mizuki Yotsukuri

    (Pacific Consultants Co. Ltd)

  • Hiromune Yokoki

    (Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Ibaraki University)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to assess the global impact of sea level rise and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are identified. The affected populations and the economic damage caused by inundation due to future climate change are estimated for a number of scenarios involving Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The effects of adaptation in coastal areas, specifically the effects of elevating dikes, are evaluated. According to study results, dikes 1 m in height may reduce the total inundated area by approximately 40% below the no-adaptation baseline under the same RCP. The cost of adaptation was estimated using an original cost database to establish the cost of protection in future socioeconomic scenarios. It was found that the incremental adaptation cost was less than the economic damage in almost all cases of RCP/SSP, providing an incentive to take action to respond to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Mizuki Yotsukuri & Hiromune Yokoki, 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 363-377, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2356-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2356-2
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pham Thi Oanh & Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Quang Van Nguyen, 2020. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mixing Gray and Green Infrastructures to Adapt to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Aijun Guo & Rong Zhang & Xiaoyu Song & Fanglei Zhong & Daiwei Jiang & Yuan Song, 2021. "Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Ramiro Parrado & Francesco Bosello & Elisa Delpiazzo & Jochen Hinkel & Daniel Lincke & Sally Brown, 2020. "Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 283-302, May.
    5. Si Ha & Hirokazu Tatano & Nobuhito Mori & Toshio Fujimi & Xinyu Jiang, 2021. "Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Lilai Xu & Shengping Ding & Vilas Nitivattananon & Jianxiong Tang, 2021. "Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Osamu Nishiura & Makoto Tamura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Junya Takakura & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.

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