IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v134y2016i3p475-487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Author

Listed:
  • N. Arnell
  • S. Brown
  • S. Gosling
  • J. Hinkel
  • C. Huntingford
  • B. Lloyd-Hughes
  • J. Lowe
  • T. Osborn
  • R. Nicholls
  • P. Zelazowski

Abstract

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator. Copyright The Author(s) 2016

Suggested Citation

  • N. Arnell & S. Brown & S. Gosling & J. Hinkel & C. Huntingford & B. Lloyd-Hughes & J. Lowe & T. Osborn & R. Nicholls & P. Zelazowski, 2016. "Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 475-487, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:p:475-487
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    2. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July.
    3. Chris W. Hope, 2006. "The marginal impacts of CO 2 , CH 4 and SF 6 emissions," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 537-544, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nigel W. Arnell & Jason A. Lowe & Ben Lloyd-Hughes & Timothy J. Osborn, 2018. "The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 61-76, March.
    2. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    3. Weiping Wang & Saini Yang & Jianxi Gao & Fuyu Hu & Wanyi Zhao & H. Eugene Stanley, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large‐Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1780-1794, September.
    4. Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Mizuki Yotsukuri & Hiromune Yokoki, 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 363-377, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nishijima, Daisuke, 2017. "The role of technology, product lifetime, and energy efficiency in climate mitigation: A case study of air conditioners in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 340-347.
    2. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    3. Chen, Han & Huang, Ye & Shen, Huizhong & Chen, Yilin & Ru, Muye & Chen, Yuanchen & Lin, Nan & Su, Shu & Zhuo, Shaojie & Zhong, Qirui & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Tao, Shu, 2016. "Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 820-829.
    4. Dereje S. Ayou & Valerie Eveloy, 2020. "Integration of Municipal Air-Conditioning, Power, and Gas Supplies Using an LNG Cold Exergy-Assisted Kalina Cycle System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-31, September.
    5. Florian Knobloch & Hector Pollitt & Unnada Chewpreecha & Vassilis Daioglou & Jean-Francois Mercure, 2017. "Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5C," Papers 1710.11019, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    6. W. J. Wouter Botzen & Jeroen C. J. M. Van Den Bergh & Graciela Chichilnisky, 2018. "Climate Policy Without Intertemporal Dictatorship: Chichilnisky Criterion Versus Classical Utilitarianism In Dice," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-17, May.
    7. François Cohen & Matthieu Glachant & Magnus Söderberg, 2017. "The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector," Working Papers hal-01695171, HAL.
    8. Yau, Y.H. & Pean, H.L., 2011. "The climate change impact on air conditioner system and reliability in Malaysia—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4939-4949.
    9. Hartin, Corinne & Link, Robert & Patel, Pralit & Mundra, Anupriya & Horowitz, Russell & Dorheim, Kalyn & Clarke, Leon, 2021. "Integrated modeling of human-earth system interactions: An application of GCAM-fusion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Yohe, Gary W. & Tol, Richard S. J. & Anthoff, David, 2009. "Discounting for Climate Change," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-22.
    11. Wang, Manyu & Wei, Chu, 2024. "Toward sustainable heating: Assessment of the carbon mitigation potential from residential heating in northern rural China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. Speerforck, Arne & Schmitz, Gerhard, 2016. "Experimental investigation of a ground-coupled desiccant assisted air conditioning system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 575-585.
    13. Susanne A. Benz & Kathrin Menberg & Peter Bayer & Barret L. Kurylyk, 2022. "Shallow subsurface heat recycling is a sustainable global space heating alternative," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Vincenzo Bianco & Annalisa Marchitto & Federico Scarpa & Luca A. Tagliafico, 2020. "Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, March.
    15. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    16. Cansino, José M. & Pablo-Romero, María del P. & Román, Rocío & Yñiguez, Rocío, 2011. "Promoting renewable energy sources for heating and cooling in EU-27 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3803-3812, June.
    17. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Zhou, Yuren & Lork, Clement & Li, Wen-Tai & Yuen, Chau & Keow, Yeong Ming, 2019. "Benchmarking air-conditioning energy performance of residential rooms based on regression and clustering techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "The Polluter Pays Principle and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change: An Application of Fund," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12058, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    20. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Andrey V. ZUBAREV & Andrey POLBIN, 2021. "Will the Paris accord accelerate climate change [Ускоряет Ли Парижское Соглашение Изменение Климата?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-37, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:p:475-487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.