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Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?

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  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Roman Keeney
  • Maros Ivanic
  • L. Alan Winters

Abstract

Critics of the Doha Development Agenda rightly point to the lack of aggressive reform in wealthy countries for its role in dampening developing country gains. The authors find that the absence of tariff cuts on staple food products in developing countries also critically limits poverty reduction in those countries. Based on their analysis of the impacts of multilateral trade policy reforms in a sample of 15 developing countries, they find there is some evidence of poverty increases amongst the poor who work in agriculture when they lose protection for their earnings. However, these effects are minimized when agricultural tariffs are cut in all developing countries, and when the impact of lower food prices on low income consumers is taken into account in their 15 country sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2009. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 543-559, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:4:p:543-559
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00483.x
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    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    2. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and market access," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 357-376, November.
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Maros Ivanic & Paul Preckel & John Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty in Developing Countries," GTAP Working Papers 1208, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889, December.
    7. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
    8. Bernard Hoekman & Francis Ng & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2004. "Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Important for Developing Economies?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 175-204.
    9. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2006. "Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7411, December.
    10. J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayanan, Badri G. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Horridge, J. Mark, 2010. "Disaggregated data and trade policy analysis: The value of linking partial and general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 755-766, May.
    2. Sandra Polaski et al, 2008. "Policy dilemmas in India: The Impact of changes in agricultural prices on rural and urban poverty," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Rada, Nicholas E. & Rosen, Stacey & Beckman, Jayson F., 2013. "Evaluating Agricultural Productivity’s Impact on Food Security," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152265, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Monika Verma & Thomas W. Hertel & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2011. "Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 190-211, May.
    5. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    6. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Barış, Enis & Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2018. "Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-160.
    7. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    8. Nyhodo, Bonani & Punt, Cecilia & Vink, Nick, 2009. "The potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on the South African economy: liberalising OECD agriculture and food trade," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(1), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Elisa, Dienesch & Sadibou, Fall Cheickh Sadibou & Laetitia, Leroy, 2011. "The Impact of domestic remittances on Households' Income Distribution in a context of Global Food Crisis," Conference papers 332044, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. L. Alan Winters & Antonio Martuscelli, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: What Have We Learned in a Decade?," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 493-512, October.
    11. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    12. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52786, World Bank.
    13. Stone, Susan F. & Strutt, Anna & Hertel, Thomas, 2009. "Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Projects in the Greater Mekong Subregion," Conference papers 331872, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ahmed, S. Amer & Baris, Enis & Go, Delfin S & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2017. "Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance," Conference papers 332903, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. ., 2012. "Socio-economic impact of regional transport infrastructure in the Greater Mekong Subregion," Chapters, in: Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Masahiro Kawai & Rajat M. Nag (ed.), Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 4, pages 95-138, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Willem Thorbecke & Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2012. "Role of Production Networks in Sustaining and Rebalancing Asia's Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3896, CESifo.
    18. Marvuglia, Antonino & Benetto, Enrico & Rege, Sameer & Jury, Colin, 2013. "Modelling approaches for consequential life-cycle assessment (C-LCA) of bioenergy: Critical review and proposed framework for biogas production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 768-781.
    19. Filipski, Mateusz & Edward Taylor, J. & Msangi, Siwa, 2011. "Effects of Free Trade on Women and Immigrants: CAFTA and the Rural Dominican Republic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1862-1877.
    20. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2013. "Contribution of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling to Policy Formulation in Developing Countries," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 277-301, Elsevier.
    21. Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V., 2011. "Predicting within country household food expenditure variation using international cross-section estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 218-220.
    22. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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