Evaluating Agricultural Productivity’s Impact on Food Security

Global agriculture must significantly increase production to meet by mid-century the demands for food, feed, and fiber posed by the world’s enlarging population. An important requirement to meeting those demands is a lifting of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates. The present analysis evaluates the impact global agricultural TFP growth may have on food security in developing countries over the next decade. The results present an encouraging picture of developing countries’ food security status, especially in Asia and Africa. It finds that a continuation of last decade’s agricultural performance significantly accelerates food security reductions, highlighting the important role agricultural productivity plays in a country’s food security strategy. It also finds that TFP growth alleviates food insecurity primarily through a balanced approach between production and trade in Asia and Latin America but gains in Africa appear heavily tilted toward imports. There are, however, limitations to our approach, such as possible overestimation of import capacity in some countries.