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The potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on the South African economy: liberalising OECD agriculture and food trade

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  • Nyhodo, Bonani
  • Punt, Cecilia
  • Vink, Nick

Abstract

This article reports the results of a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on the possible liberalisation of agriculture and food trade in the OECD countries. Liberalisation of trade was simulated assuming a reduction in import tariffs, the tax rate on factor use and export subsidies in four steps of 25% points each. Such simulations were run in the GLOBE model then adjusted and used as a policy shock to the PROVIDE model. The results show that the weighed average world price (adjusted) changes will range between -19.6 to +3.8% for imports and between -3.0 and +29.7% for exports at 75% liberalisation. The results from the single country CGE model show that the South African economy would respond positively to the world price changes, with government and macro variables showing minimal but positive responses. Household consumption expenditures generally show positive changes, implying increased factor incomes. Not all sectors will be positively affected even though the overall effect is positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyhodo, Bonani & Punt, Cecilia & Vink, Nick, 2009. "The potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on the South African economy: liberalising OECD agriculture and food trade," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(1), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:49288
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49288
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/49288/files/4.%20Nyhodo%20et%20al.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johann Kirsten & Julian May & Sheryl Hendriks & Charles L. Machethe & Cecelia Punt & Mike Lyne, 2007. "South Africa," Chapters, in: Fabrizio Bresciani & Alberto Valdés (ed.),Beyond Food Production, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Liebenberg, Frikkie & Beintema, Nienke M. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2004. "South Africa," ASTI country briefs 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Jean, Sã‰Bastien & Matthews, Alan, 2006. "The consequences of agricultural trade liberalization for developing countries: distinguishing between genuine benefits and false hopes," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 225-249, July.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2015. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 18, pages 375-391, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. John C. Beghin & Ataman Aksoy, 2003. "Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: Lessons from Commodity Studies," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 03-bp42, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, June.
    6. van Schoor, Melt & Punt, Cecilia & McDonald, Scott, 2006. "Compiling National, Multiregional and Regional Social Accounting Matrices for South Africa," Technical Paper Series 58067, PROVIDE Project.
    7. Mehdi SHAFAEDDIN, 2001. "Free Trade Or Fair Trade? An Enquiry Into The Causes Of Failure In Recent Trade Negotiations," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 153, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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    10. Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Orden, David, 2005. "Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call," MTID discussion papers 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy;

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