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Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call


  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Orden, David


"This paper accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides simulation results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that have helped focus the debate about the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization on developing countries. The aggregate numbers show modest net positive effects over a medium-term period (five years out). First, when developed countries fully remove their subsidies and trade barriers, welfare and GDP of the developing countries rise, as do value added in agricultural production and agro-industries, and agricultural exports. Focal point estimates that we provide are increases in welfare and GDP of $10 billion and $15 billion, respectively, while agricultural value added increases $23 billion and agricultural exports by $37 billion. Second, when developing countries also eliminate their subsidies and trade barriers, there is an additional net gain in aggregated developing country welfare and GDP—which now increase by nearly $20 billion and $38 billion. Thus, developing countries gain from developed country liberalization, but there are also gains from reform of their own policies. Our results suggest a fairly even balance between these sources of gains. The second and equally important contribution of the paper is to describe the heterogeneity among developing countries in terms of their agricultural resources, and to disaggregate the simulated results among 40 developing countries or regions. The basic model includes the innovation of assuming there is unemployed labor in developing countries, so growth in agricultural production has a modest “multiplier” effect. The basic model also allows for a slight positive effect of increased trade on productivity—the focal results cited above include this impact. Effects are distinguished between elimination of subsidies and trade barriers by the US, the EU, Japan and Korea, and all developed countries simultaneously. Effects on different developing countries and regions differ due to differences in the subsidy and trade barrier instruments utilized by the developed countries, the commodities affected, and the trade patterns and volumes evident in the initial baseline data." Authors' Abstract

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  • Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Orden, David, 2005. "Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call," MTID discussion papers 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:84

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hertel, Thomas W. & Kym Anderson & Joseph Francois & Will Martin, 2002. "Agriculture and Non-Agricultural Liberalization in the Millennium Round," GTAP Working Papers 235, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Jaime de Melo & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 3, pages 43-70 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), December.
    4. Xinshen Diao & Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Scenarios for Trade Integration in the Americas," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 33-51.
    5. Sébastien Dessus & Kiichiro Fukasaku & Raed Safadi, 2001. "Multilateral Tariff Liberalisation and the Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 18, OECD Publishing.
    6. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Measuring the dynamic gains from trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2001, The World Bank.
    8. Nicholas Minot & Lisa Daniels, 2005. "Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 453-466, November.
    9. Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 032, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2001. "Trade Policy, Food Price Variability, And The Vulnerability Of Low-Income Households," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20692, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Thomas, Marcelle & Yanoma, Yukitsugu, 2001. "WTO, agriculture, and developing countries," TMD discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Tin, Jonathan, 2002. "That was then but this is now," TMD discussion papers 94, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Thomas, Marcelle & Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea, 2000. "Food security and trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization," TMD discussion papers 59, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouët, Antoine, 2006. "What can the poor expect from trade liberalization?: opening the "black box" of trade modeling," MTID discussion papers 93, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Tedesco, Ilaria & Pelloni, Alessandra & Trovato, Giovanni, 0. "Oecd Agricultural Subsidies And Poverty Rates In Lower Income Countries," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3.
    3. Ernesto Zedillo & Patrick Messerlin & Julia Nielson, 2005. "Trade for Development. Achieving the Millennium Development Goals," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8367, Sciences Po.
    4. Hakim Ben Hammouda & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2008. "Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 26(2), pages 151-170, March.
    5. Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Jean, Sebastien & Matthews, Alan, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing the Consequences for Developing Countries," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24628, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Hoddinott, John & Cohen, Marc J., 2007. "Renegotiating the Food Aid Convention: Background, context, and issues," IFPRI discussion papers 690, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Patrick Messerlin, 2006. "Europe after the 'no' votes : mapping a new economic path : thirty-fifth Wincott Lecture, 3 October 2005," Post-Print hal-00973109, HAL.
    8. Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Jean, Sebastien & Matthews, Alan, 2006. "The Consequences of Agricultural Trade Liberalization for Developing Countries," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25471, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Chisari, Omar Osvaldo & Mastronardi, Leonardo Javier & Romero, Carlos Adrián, 2012. "Local taxes in Buenos Aires City: A CGE approach," MPRA Paper 40029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Patrick Messerlin, 2006. "Europe after the 'no' votes : mapping a new economic path : thirty-fifth Wincott Lecture, 3 October 2005," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8309, Sciences Po.
    11. Nyhodo, Bonani & Punt, Cecilia & Vink, Nick, 2009. "The potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on the South African economy: liberalising OECD agriculture and food trade," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(1), March.
    12. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Chisari, Omar O. & Romero, Carlos A., 2013. "Economy-wide impacts of biofuels in Argentina," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 636-647.
    13. Hewitt, Joanna, 2008. "Impact evaluation of research by the International Food Policy Research Institute on agricultural trade liberalization, developing countries, and WTO's Doha negotiations:," Impact assessments 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Mastronardi, Leonardo Javier, 2013. "Federalismo fiscal en Argentina: Un análisis de efectos spillover mediante un CGE regional
      [Fiscal Federalism in Argentina: An analysis of spillover effects using a regional CGE]
      ," MPRA Paper 54376, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Agricultural policies ; Developing countries ; Industrialized countries ; Computable General Equilibrium Models ; trade liberalization ; Trade barriers ; subsidies ;

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