Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call
"This paper accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides simulation results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that have helped focus the debate about the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization on developing countries. The aggregate numbers show modest net positive effects over a medium-term period (five years out). First, when developed countries fully remove their subsidies and trade barriers, welfare and GDP of the developing countries rise, as do value added in agricultural production and agro-industries, and agricultural exports. Focal point estimates that we provide are increases in welfare and GDP of $10 billion and $15 billion, respectively, while agricultural value added increases $23 billion and agricultural exports by $37 billion. Second, when developing countries also eliminate their subsidies and trade barriers, there is an additional net gain in aggregated developing country welfare and GDP—which now increase by nearly $20 billion and $38 billion. Thus, developing countries gain from developed country liberalization, but there are also gains from reform of their own policies. Our results suggest a fairly even balance between these sources of gains. The second and equally important contribution of the paper is to describe the heterogeneity among developing countries in terms of their agricultural resources, and to disaggregate the simulated results among 40 developing countries or regions. The basic model includes the innovation of assuming there is unemployed labor in developing countries, so growth in agricultural production has a modest “multiplier” effect. The basic model also allows for a slight positive effect of increased trade on productivity—the focal results cited above include this impact. Effects are distinguished between elimination of subsidies and trade barriers by the US, the EU, Japan and Korea, and all developed countries simultaneously. Effects on different developing countries and regions differ due to differences in the subsidy and trade barrier instruments utilized by the developed countries, the commodities affected, and the trade patterns and volumes evident in the initial baseline data." Authors' Abstract
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006|
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Kym Anderson & Joseph Francois & Will Martin, 2002. "Agriculture and Non-Agricultural Liberalization in the Millennium Round," GTAP Working Papers 235, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2001. "Trade Policy, Food Price Variability, And The Vulnerability Of Low-Income Households," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20692, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002.
"Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), December.
- Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "Trade liberalization and regional integration: the search for large numbers," TMD discussion papers 34, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Thomas, Marcelle & Yanoma, Yukitsugu, 2001. "WTO, agriculture, and developing countries," TMD discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Jaime de Melo & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 3, pages 43-70 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Productivity and externalities : models of export led growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 387, The World Bank.
- Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Tin, Jonathan, 2002. "That was then but this is now," TMD discussion papers 94, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Xinshen Diao & Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Scenarios for Trade Integration in the Americas," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 33-51.
- Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman, 2002. "Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas," TMD discussion papers 90, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Sébastien Dessus & Kiichiro Fukasaku & Raed Safadi, 2001. "Multilateral Tariff Liberalisation and the Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 18, OECD Publishing.
- Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Thomas, Marcelle & Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea, 2000. "Food security and trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization," TMD discussion papers 59, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Nicholas Minot & Lisa Daniels, 2005. "Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 453-466, November.
- Minot, Nicholas & Daniels, Lisa, 2002. "Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin," MSSD discussion papers 48, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Minot, Nicholas & Daniels, Lisa, 2002. "Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin," MTID discussion papers 48, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Measuring the dynamic gains from trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2001, The World Bank.
- Wacziarg, Romain, 2000. "Measuring the Dynamic Gains from Trade," Research Papers 1654, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 032, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)