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Projected Benefits of the Doha Round Hinge on Misleading Trade Models

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Abstract

Projected welfare gains from trade liberalization are derived from global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are based on highly unrealistic assumptions. In this SCEPA Policy Note, the authors analyze the foundation of CGE models and argue that their predictions are often misleading. They find that any possible Doha trade agreement is likely to introduce substantial macroeconomic risk for developing countries, and particularly sub Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance Taylor & Rudiger von Arnim, 2007. "Projected Benefits of the Doha Round Hinge on Misleading Trade Models," SCEPA policy note series. 2007-03, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepapn:2007_03
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    File URL: https://repec.economicpolicyresearch.org/images/docs/research/globalization_trade/Doha_Policy_Note_Final_03_12_07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Ackerman, "undated". "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    2. repec:wbk:wbpubs:14050 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:wbk:wbpubs:6889 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Taylor, Lance & Lysy, Frank J., 1979. "Vanishing income redistributions : Keynesian clues about model surprises in the short run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-29, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2011. "Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1950-1958, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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