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Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes

Author

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  • Carmen Camacho

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Yu Sun

    (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

Under the threat of earthquakes, long-term policy makers need tools to decide optimally on the economic trajectories that maximize the society welfare. Tools should be flexible and account for the consequences of earthquakes, incorporating the best estimate of their frequency and intensity. In this regard, we propose in this paper a modeling strategy that combines optimal control techniques and Bayesian learning: after an earthquake occurs, policy makers can improve their knowledge and adjust policies optimally. Two numerical examples illustrate the advantages of our modelling strategy along different dimensions. While Japan symbolizes the policy maker who has learned from earthquakes protecting the economy accordingly; Italy helps us illustrate the importance of prevention capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Camacho & Yu Sun, 2017. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes," Working Papers halshs-01670507, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01670507
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01670507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hallegatte,Stephane & Jooste,Charl & Mcisaac,Florent John, 2022. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters : A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floodsand Earthquakes in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9943, The World Bank.

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