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Transferts de fonds et résilience des pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest face à la variabilité des précipitations : une perspective macroéconomique

  • Rémi Generoso

    ()

    (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines)

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    The aim of this paper is to assess the role of remittances in West African countries facing climate variability. In particular, we attempt to check whether remittances respond to rainfall shocks and how this adjustment affects the macroeconomic performance of those countries. Accordingly, we estimate a panel VAR over the period 1975 to 2009 for a sample of eight West African countries divided into two main subclimates: a sahelian dry climate and a wetter sudanian climate. Our results indicate that rainfall variability impacts negatively on economic activity and positively remittances only in dryer countries. Positive shocks on remittances tend in turn to increase agricultural imports especially in those countries most vulnerable to precipitation variability.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00830021
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