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Transferts des migrants, ouverture sur l'extérieur et dépenses publiques dans les pays en développement

  • Christian EBEKE

Cet article examine l’impact des transferts des migrants sur les dépenses publiques dans les économies du monde en développement. Nous testons l’argument selon lequel, il s’opère une substitution partielle entre l’assurance publique et l’assurance privée qu’offrent les transferts des migrants dans les pays ouverts sur l’extérieur. La capacité des transferts des migrants à effectivement jouer ce rôle d’assurance contre les chocs, est évaluée en construisant des mesures de cyclicité des transferts des migrants vis-à-vis du PIB réel qui ont l’avantage de pouvoir varier par pays et par année. Il apparaît que la contracyclicité des transferts des migrants concerne à peu près la moitié des pays de l’échantillon et qu’elle a été particulièrement marquée durant le milieu des années 1990. Par ailleurs, nos estimations économétriques montrent que l’ouverture commerciale est une variable déterminante pour expliquer la contracyclicité des transferts. Ensuite, sur la base d’un modèle théorique simple inspiré de Rodrik (1998) et d’estimations économétriques à partir d’un échantillon de 67 pays en développement, nous montrons d’une part que l’ouverture commerciale exerce bien une pression à la hausse des dépenses publiques et d’autre part, que cet impact décroît avec le niveau de transferts des migrants reçus. Il apparaît en outre que c’est véritablement lorsque les transferts des migrants sont contracycliques qu’ils conduisent à une baisse de la consommation publique.// Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on government size in developing countries. We test the hypothesis that there is a partial substitution between public insurance by government spending and a private insurance by remittances in more opened countries. The insurance role of remittances is evaluated by computing yearly panel data coefficients of remittances’ cyclicality with respect to real GDP cycle. It appears that remittances are become more countercyclical during 1990s. Moreover, there is a strong association between trade openness and the countercyclicality of remittances received by developing countries. From a simple theoretical model close to Rodrik (1998) one and on the basis of econometric estimations using a large sample of developing countries (67) and a dynamic panel data estimator, we find that trade openness is positively associated to government spending and this impact decreases with the level of remittances received. Moreover, it is when remittances are effectively countercyclical that the mechanisms described here operate.

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Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 201011.

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Length: 47
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1149
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