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Growth Effects of Remittances:Is there a U-Shaped Relationship?




This paper shows that the effect of remittances on economic growth entails a U-shaped pattern where it is negative in the beginning but becomes positive later on. The analysis is based on the argument that recipient household savings out of remittances income is negligible or even negative in the initial periods but turns positive in the later part. Using time series data from Bangladesh and single-equation cointegration methods, we find that remittances’ effect on long-run growth is negative and falling until remittances-to-GDP ratio is roughly 9 percent and it starts to become positive when the ratio exceeds 17 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazi Mainul Hassan & Mohammed S. Bhuyan, 2013. "Growth Effects of Remittances:Is there a U-Shaped Relationship?," Working Papers in Economics 13/16, University of Waikato.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:13/16

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John Page & Sonia Plaza, 2006. "Migration Remittances and Development: A Review of Global Evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(2), pages 245-336, December.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Gazi M. Hassan & Mark J. Holmes, 2013. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4959-4970, December.
    4. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    5. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
    6. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009. "Remittances, financial development, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
    7. Abu Siddique & E. A. Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 2011. "Remittances and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 1045-1062, October.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    10. Mckenzie, David & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances; How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-6.
    13. Alejandra Cox Edwards & Manuelita Ureta, 2003. "International Migration, Remittances, and Schooling: Evidence from El Salvador," NBER Working Papers 9766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. B. Bhaskara Rao & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2012. "Are the Direct and Indirect Growth Effects of Remittances Significant?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 351-372, March.
    15. Edwards, Alejandra Cox & Ureta, Manuelita, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 429-461, December.
    16. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
    17. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
    18. Craig Burnside & David Dollar, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 781-784, June.
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    More about this item


    remittances and growth; remittances utilisation; total factor productivity (TFP); cointegration; Bangladesh;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

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