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Growth Effects of Remittances:Is there a U-Shaped Relationship?

This paper shows that the effect of remittances on economic growth entails a U-shaped pattern where it is negative in the beginning but becomes positive later on. The analysis is based on the argument that recipient household savings out of remittances income is negligible or even negative in the initial periods but turns positive in the later part. Using time series data from Bangladesh and single-equation cointegration methods, we find that remittances’ effect on long-run growth is negative and falling until remittances-to-GDP ratio is roughly 9 percent and it starts to become positive when the ratio exceeds 17 percent.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/1316.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 13/16.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:13/16
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  1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March.
  2. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
  3. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Paola Giuliano, 2005. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/234, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Hassan, Gazi & Holmes, Mark, 2012. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rate," MPRA Paper 40084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  7. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
  8. Abu Siddique & E A Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 2010. "Remittances and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh India and Sri Lanka," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-27, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  10. B. Bhaskara Rao & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2012. "Are the Direct and Indirect Growth Effects of Remittances Significant?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 351-372, 03.
  11. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
  12. Alejandra Cox Edwards & Manuelita Ureta, 2003. "International Migration, Remittances, and Schooling: Evidence from El Salvador," NBER Working Papers 9766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David Mckenzie & Hillel Rapoport, 2004. "Network Effects and the Dynamics of Migration and Inequality: Theory and Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2004-3, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  14. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances; How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
  15. John Page & Sonia Plaza, 2006. "Migration Remittances and Development: A Review of Global Evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(2), pages 245-336, December.
  16. Dean Yang, 2006. "International Migration, Remittances, and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Craig Burnside & David Dollar, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 781-784, June.
  18. Edwards, Alejandra Cox & Ureta, Manuelita, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 429-461, December.
  19. Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 6.
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