IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/eee/hacchp/v1y2013icp1271-1330.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

In: Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.

Abstract

Validity is a key issue for consumers of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling services. What assurance can producers of CGE results give to consumers that a CGE analysis: (i) is computationally sound, (ii) uses accurate up-to-date data, (iii) adequately captures behavioral and institutional characteristics of the relevant part of the economy, (iv) is consistent with history, and (v) is based on a model that has forecasting credentials? This chapter gives some answers. With regard to (i), CGE modelers have an obligation to conduct exhaustive test simulations. The value of these procedures goes beyond computational checking. Test simulations are a practical way to become familiar with a model and often reveal modeling weaknesses. On (ii) and (iii), the most effective approach for displaying the relevant data and describing what is going on is via a back-of-the-envelope (BOTE) model. A well-designed BOTE model has two properties: it reveals the roles of major behavioral, institutional and data assumptions in causing a model to generate a particular result; and it is small enough to be managed with pencil and paper (on the back of an envelope) and to be presented in a limited timeframe to policy advisors. On (iv) and (v), the chapter describes various aspects of statistical validation, concentrating mainly on historical simulation, baseline forecasting and the testing of baselines against reality. This work demonstrates that CGE models can produce forecasts at a highly disaggregated level that comfortably beat non-model-based trend forecasts. It also demonstrates that there is considerable potential for improved CGE forecasts through conscientious data work and improved methods for projecting trends from historical simulations into forecasting simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1271-1330, Elsevier.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:1271-1330
    DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-444-59568-3.00019-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444595683000195
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA," Staff Report 320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Johnson, David T., 1985. "The Short-Term Economic Effects of Environmental Constraints on Forest Industries," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(03), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Marinos E. Tsigas, 2007. "Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 31-55, March.
    5. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    6. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Glyn Wittwer, 2011. "Saving the Southern Murray‐Darling Basin: The Economic Effects of a Buyback of Irrigation Water," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 153-168, March.
    7. Peter B. Dixon, 2009. "Comments on the Productivity Commission’s Modelling of the Economy‐Wide Effects of Future Automotive Assistance," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(1), pages 11-18, March.
    8. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    9. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    10. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 115-141, June.
    11. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Optimal Tariffs: Should Australia Cut Automotive Tariffs Unilaterally?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 143-161, June.
    12. Krueger, Anne O, 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 291-303, June.
    13. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 1999. "Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(4), pages 327-348, December.
    14. Dixon, Peter B & Menon, Jayant & Rimmer, Maureen T, 2000. "Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 33-55, March.
    15. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    16. Productivity Commission, 2008. "Modelling Economy-wide Effects of Future Automotive Assistance," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 30.
    17. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 13-23, September.
    18. Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2007. "Assessing Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 383-397.
    19. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B. R. & Powell, Alan A., 1984. "The role of miniatures in computable general equilibrium modelling : Experience from ORANI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 421-428, October.
    20. Adams, Philip D., 2005. "Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 941-959, November.
    21. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 22-34, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James A. Giesecke & John R. Madden, 2013. "Evidence-based regional economic policy analysis: the role of CGE modelling," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 6(2), pages 285-301.
    2. Francesco Felici & Maria Gesualdo, 2014. "ORANI-IT: a computable general equilibrium model of Italy," Working Papers 7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    3. Andrés M. Velasco & Camilo A. Cárdenas Hurtado, 2015. "A Macro CGE Model for the Colombian Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012426, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Chen, Zhenhua & Rose, Adam Z. & Prager, Fynnwin & Chatterjee, Samrat, 2017. "Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 207-226.
    5. Figari, Francesco & Paulus, Alari & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Microsimulation and policy analysis," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Marc Jim M. Mariano & James A. Giesecke, 2016. "Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4019-4032, September.
    7. Robson, Edward N. & Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2018. "A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 31-53.
    8. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Timmer, Hans, 2015. "Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 521-547.
    9. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2018. "Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 289-312, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Validating CGE models; CGE test simulations; CGE back of the envelope; CGE baseline; CGE forecasting performance;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:1271-1330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://store.elsevier.com/Handbook-of-Computable-General-Equilibrium-Modeling/isbn-9780444536341/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.