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Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

Over the last thirty years, the effects of indirect taxation changes have been analysed using comparative static general equilibrium models. We use a new method to analyse current changes in Australia’s indirect taxes: dynamic computable general equilibrium modelling. Comparative static methods compare the situation in a given year (usually unspecified) with and without a policy change. The dynamic method shows the effects of a policy change through time. Comparative static methods are usually restricted to estimates of long‐run changes in allocative efficiency. The dynamic method provides information not only on efficiency but also on adjustment processes, including variations in employment. With our dynamic method, the effects of policy changes are analysed as deviations from explicit forecasts. We find that these forecasts are important for the policy results. For Australia’s current set of indirect tax changes, our main conclusions are (i) the short‐run employment effects depend critically on the wage response; (ii) merchandise exporters benefit but tourism is harmed; and (iii) the long‐run welfare effectsare likely to be negative, reflecting a decline in the terms of trade and increased compliance costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 1999. "Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(4), pages 327-348, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:32:y:1999:i:4:p:327-348
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.00122
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    1. SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2015. "Modelling And Predicting The Indirect Taxes In Romania," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(2), pages 67-77.
    2. Stefan Boeters & Christoph Bohringer & Thiess Buttner & Margit Kraus, 2010. "Economic effects of VAT reforms in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2165-2182.
    3. Jean, Sébastien & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "Determinants and pervasiveness of the evasion of custom duties," Conference papers 331896, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Hasegawa, Marcos & Lopes, Ricardo Luis, 2002. "A estrutura teórica do modelo inter-regional para a economia brasileira - MIBRA [The theoretical structure of inter regional model for the Brazilian economy - MIBRA]," MPRA Paper 54019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2005. "Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia," Chapters, in: Sisira Jayasuriya (ed.), Trade Theory, Analytical Models and Development, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Giesecke, James A. & Nhi, Tran Hoang, 2010. "Modelling value-added tax in the presence of multi-production and differentiated exemptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 156-173, April.
    7. Mariano, Marc Jim M. & Giesecke, James A., 2014. "The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-361.
    8. Haddad, Eduardo & Domingues, Edson, 2002. "Tax policy and re-location," ERSA conference papers ersa02p074, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Jason Nassios & John Madden & James Giesecke & Janine Dixon & Nhi Tran & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer & Philip Adams & John Freebairn, 2019. "The economic impact and efficiency of state and federal taxes in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-289, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    10. Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Lucht, Wolfgang & Jaeger, Carlo C., 2002. "A Sustainability Geoscope: Defining an Integrated Information Base for Interdisciplinary Modeling of Global Change," Conference papers 330991, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. John Freebairn, 2018. "Opportunities and Challenges for CGE Models in Analysing Taxation," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(1), pages 17-29, March.
    12. James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran & Robert Waschik, 2021. "Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Takamatsu, Shinya & Ko, Jong-Hwan, 2010. "The Impact of Laos’ Accession to the World Trade Organization," Conference papers 331967, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Jason Nassios & James Giesecke, 2022. "Property Tax Reform: Implications for Housing Prices and Economic Productivity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-330, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    15. James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran, 2018. "The National and Regional Consequences of Australia's Goods and Services Tax," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 255-275, September.
    16. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1271-1330, Elsevier.
    17. Sang‐Hee Han & Alan D. Woodland, 2003. "An Inter‐temporal General Equilibrium Econometric Model for a Small Open Economy with Application to Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 1-19, March.
    18. James Giesecke, 2004. "The Extent and Consequences of Recent Structural Changes in the Australian Economy, 1997-2002: Results from Historical/Decomposition Simulations with MONASH," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-151, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    19. Kohlhaas, Michael & Bach, Stefan, 2005. "The effect of special provisions in the framework of energy taxes on the environmental effectivess - The case of Germany," Conference papers 331378, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 22-34, September.

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