Forecasting with a CGE model: does it work?
Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has been applied in policy analyses in the U.S. and Australia. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate "genuine forecasts" for 500 U.S. commodities/industries for the period 1998 to 2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes and with alternate forecasts derived as extrapolated trends from 1992 to 1998.
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"Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks,"
Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers
ip-73, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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Levine's Working Paper Archive
506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
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- Marc J. Melitz, 2003.
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Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
- Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Richard Harris, 1983.
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