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Is Africa's economy at a turning point?

Author

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  • Arbache, Jorge
  • Go, Delfin S.
  • Page, John

Abstract

In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbache, Jorge & Go, Delfin S. & Page, John, 2008. "Is Africa's economy at a turning point?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4519, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Olessia Korbut & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2011. "Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2011/040, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Arnelyn Abdon & Jesus Felipe, 2011. "The Product Space: What Does It Say About the Opportunities for Growth and Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_670, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. World Bank, 2009. "Africa - Making Development Climate Resilient : A World Bank Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 3211, The World Bank Group.
    4. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Timmer, Hans, 2015. "Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 521-547.
    5. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2008. "Domestic resources, governance, global links, and the economic performance of Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 11193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Devarajan,Shantayanan & Go,Delfin Sia & Robinson,Sherman, 2023. "Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models : Estimates for 191 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10490, The World Bank.
    7. Sebil Olalekan Oshota & Bashir Adelowo Wahab, 2022. "Institutional Quality and Intra-Regional Trade Flows: Evidence from ECOWAS," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 73-106, December.
    8. Go, Delfin S. & Quijada, Jose Alejandro, 2011. "Assessing the odds of achieving the MDGs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5825, The World Bank.
    9. John Page, 2009. "Africa's Growth Turnaround," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28026, April.

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