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Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Terrie L. Walmsley

    (Purdue University)

  • L. Alan Winters

    (World Bank)

Abstract

While the liberalisation of trade has been at the forefront of the global agenda for many decades, the movement of natural persons remains heavily guarded. Nevertheless restrictions on the movement of natural persons across regions impose a cost on developing and developed economies that far exceeds that of trade restrictions on goods. This paper uses a global CGE model to investigate the extent of these costs, by examining the effects of an increase in developed countries’ quotas on both skilled and unskilled temporary labour equivalent to 3% of their labour forces. The results confirm that restrictions on the movement of natural persons impose significant costs on nearly all countries (over $150 billion in all), and that those on unskilled labour are more burdensome than those on skilled labour.

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie L. Walmsley & L. Alan Winters, 2005. "Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 688-726.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0337
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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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