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Market and Welfare Implications of Doha Reform Scenarios

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Martin, Will
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Abstract

This paper examines the market and welfare implications of potential Doha reform scenarios. The first part of the paper describes possible policy outcomes on the basis of existing WTO negotiations and positions—first in the agricultural sectors as identified by the so-called three pillars: market access, domestic support and export subsidies, second in non-agricultural market access (so-called NAMA), and finally the other components of the Doha negotiations. The second part of the paper provides a quantitative assessment—using the World Bank’s dynamic global general equilibrium trade model—of the first two components, i.e. the three agricultural pillars and non-agricultural market access, leaving aside the other (important) components for which a quantitative assessment is significantly more difficult. The analysis suggests that an ambitious Doha round would take the global economy some distance towards the maximum potential gain of global free trade—up to one-third. However, because of the binding overhang in tariffs, developing countries risk missing an opportunity to make more significant gains in income and exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Market and Welfare Implications of Doha Reform Scenarios," Conference papers 331428, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331428
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331428/files/2284.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85, Elsevier.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 13-23, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bouet, Antoine, 2009. "The Expected Benefits of Trade Liberalization for World Income and Development: Opening the "Black Box" of Global Trade Modeling," Food Policy Reviews 53871, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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