China'S Real Exchange Rate Puzzle
International pressure to revalue China's currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity, causes non-traded prices to rise. The puzzle is that, while evidence on China's productivity and prices supports this hypothesis, its real exchange rate has shown no long run tendency to appreciate. Resolution requires extension of the hypothesis to allow for effects on the real exchange rate due to non-traded productivity improvements or, in association with failures of the law of one price for traded goods, labour supply growth and growth-related demand switches due to changes in financial capital flows and trade distortions. The sensitivity of China's real exchange rate to these determinants is reviewed with the results confirming that financial and capital outflows are dominant depreciating forces in the short run. Along with WTO accession trade reforms, it is shown that the heretofore rising surplus of Chinese domestic saving over its investment has restrained the real exchange rate from appreciating since the late 1990s.
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- Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2015.
"The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration,"
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15-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
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- Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008.
"China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
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Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, 02.
- Rod Tyers & Yongxiang Bu & Ian Bain, 2006. "China’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-466, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
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"Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle,"
Working Paper Series
2004-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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- Alan M. Taylor & Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," Working Papers 511, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies: How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006.
"China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate,"
ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics
2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
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