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Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited

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Abstract

The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously. The hypothesis is found to be fragile in the modified framework. Small variations in the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign traded goods (within the range of estimates suggested in the literature), for example, can make the effect of a traded-goods productivity improvement on the real exchange rate negative or positive, as well as small or large. This result provides a potential explanation of the mixed empirical results that have been obtained on the relationship between productivity and the real exchange rate.

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  • Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2010. "Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited," Carleton Economic Papers 10-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:10-06
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Antonio Marasco, 2014. "Asymmetric Technological Change in the Melitz Model: Are Foreign Technological Improvements Harmful?," Carleton Economic Papers 14-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "The Penn Effect revisited: New evidence from Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 1364-1379, November.
    3. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    4. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    5. Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Fazio, Giorgio & MacDonald, Ronald, 2017. "The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-92.
    6. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2014. "Productivity, commodity prices and the real exchange rate: The long-run behavior of the Canada–US exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 537-551.
    7. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2015. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors: a reappraisal of the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 249-265.
    8. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 80-95.
    9. Matthias Gubler & Christoph Sax, 2019. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Alan V. Deardorff, 2016. "What Do We (and Others) Mean by "The Terms of Trade"?," Working Papers 651, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2013. "Real Convergence, Capital Flows, and Competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 886-900, November.
    12. Achim Schmillen, 2013. "Are wages equal across sectors of production?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 655-682, October.
    13. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2015. "Productivity Shocks and Real Effective Exchange Rates," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 502-515, August.
    14. Gubler, Matthias & Sax, Christoph, 2012. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Real Exchange Rate," Working papers 2012/08, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    15. Brede, Maren, 2018. "Real exchange rate dynamics in New-Keynesian models – The Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181539, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou & Orafiri C. Ogan, 2019. "Drivers of the real effective exchange rates in high and upper‐middle income countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 41-53, March.
    17. Noel GASTON & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2020. "Heterogenous Job Separations and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion papers 20032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Gaston, Noel & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2023. "The Balassa-Samuelson model with job separations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson effect: evidence from developing and emerging economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "The Penn Effect Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 70593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ghosh, Saurabh & Nath, Siddhartha & Srivastava, Sauhard, 2021. "Productivity and Real Exchange Rates for India: Does Balassa-Samuelson Effect Explain?," MPRA Paper 110913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Fabrice Nzepang & Saturnin Bertrand Nguenda Anya, 2022. "Effects of ICTs on the Terms of Trade of Sub-Saharan African Economies," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-119, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Balassa-Samuelson model; Productivity; Terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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