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Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited

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  • Ehsan U. Choudhri
  • Lawrence L. Schembri

Abstract

The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously. The hypothesis is found to be fragile in the modified framework. Small variations in the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign traded goods (within the range of estimates suggested in the literature), for example, can make the effect of a traded-goods productivity improvement on the real exchange rate negative or positive, as well as small or large. This result provides a potential explanation of the mixed empirical results that have been obtained on the relationship between productivity and the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2009. "Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited," Staff Working Papers 09-22, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:09-22
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Antonio Marasco, 2014. "Asymmetric Technological Change in the Melitz Model: Are Foreign Technological Improvements Harmful?," Carleton Economic Papers 14-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2015. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors: a reappraisal of the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 249-265.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "The Penn Effect revisited: New evidence from Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 1364-1379, November.
    5. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 80-95.
    6. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2014. "Productivity, commodity prices and the real exchange rate: The long-run behavior of the Canada–US exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 537-551.
    7. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou & Orafiri C. Ogan, 2019. "Drivers of the real effective exchange rates in high and upper‐middle income countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 41-53, March.
    8. Matthias Gubler & Christoph Sax, 2019. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Alan V. Deardorff, 2016. "What Do We (and Others) Mean by "The Terms of Trade"?," Working Papers 651, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    10. Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Fazio, Giorgio & MacDonald, Ronald, 2017. "The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-92.
    11. Noel GASTON & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2020. "Heterogenous Job Separations and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion papers 20032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    13. Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson effect: evidence from developing and emerging economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Gaston, Noel & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2023. "The Balassa-Samuelson model with job separations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Olk, Christopher, 2024. "How much a dollar cost: Currency hierarchy as a driver of ecologically unequal exchange," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    16. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    17. Achim Schmillen, 2013. "Are wages equal across sectors of production?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 655-682, October.
    18. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "The Penn Effect Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 70593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2015. "Productivity Shocks and Real Effective Exchange Rates," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 502-515, August.
    20. Gubler, Matthias & Sax, Christoph, 2012. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Real Exchange Rate," Working papers 2012/08, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    21. Brede, Maren, 2018. "Real exchange rate dynamics in New-Keynesian models – The Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181539, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Ghosh, Saurabh & Nath, Siddhartha & Srivastava, Sauhard, 2021. "Productivity and Real Exchange Rates for India: Does Balassa-Samuelson Effect Explain?," MPRA Paper 110913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Fabrice Nzepang & Saturnin Bertrand Nguenda Anya, 2022. "Effects of ICTs on the Terms of Trade of Sub-Saharan African Economies," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-119, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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