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Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal

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  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.
  • Sager, Michael

Abstract

We reappraise the relationship between productivity and equilibrium real exchange rates using a panel estimation framework that incorporates a large number of countries and importantly, a dataset that allows explicit consideration of the role of non-traded, as well as traded, sector productivity shocks in exchange rate determination. We find evidence of significant correlation between real exchange rates and productivity differentials in both sectors. But our finding of a significant role for the non-traded sector in exchange rate determination, and of a relatively larger correlation between exchange rates and productivity shocks of a given size emanating from this sector, represent clear contradictions of the widely cited Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Our findings remain valid in the face of a number of robustness tests, including the exchange rate regime and numéraire currency. JEL Classification: F31, O47, C23

Suggested Citation

  • Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sager, Michael, 2009. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal," Working Paper Series 1046, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091046
    Note: 355041
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou & Orafiri C. Ogan, 2019. "Drivers of the real effective exchange rates in high and upper‐middle income countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 41-53, March.
    3. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Pericoli, Filippo & Poncela, Pilar, 2018. "New Risk Sharing Channels in OECD Countries: a Heterogeneous Panel VAR," Working Papers 2018-13, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    5. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    6. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Poncela, Pilar, 2023. "Risk sharing channels in OECD countries: A heterogeneous panel VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Lenarčič, Črt, 2019. "Inflation – Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect in a DSGE model setting," MPRA Paper 101199, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balassa-Samuelson; emerging market economies; exchange rate; Panel data; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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