IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare05/137808.html

Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for Agricultural Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chan, Ming Ming
  • Shi, Qun
  • Tyers, Rodney

Abstract

Errors in projecting demographic change have been considerable in recent decades. The fertility declines and increased longevity associated with the concluding global demographic transition have been surprisingly rapid, leading to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model for the analysis of these changes, from which emerge their implications for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using a global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated into eight components comprising four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age groups in savings behaviour and its effects on aggregate savings and investment and their international distribution. Corresponding variation in labour force participation is also significant, acting through labour supply growth and the pattern of comparative advantage. Secondary effects arise from variations in consumption preferences across age groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan, Ming Ming & Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rodney, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for Agricultural Markets," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137808, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare05:137808
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.137808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/137808/files/2005_chan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.137808?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy J. Hatton & Massimiliano Tani, 2005. "Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 342-358, November.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Productivity across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 135-146, February.
    4. Kitamura, Yukinobu & 北村, 行伸 & キタムラ, ユキノブ & Takayama, Noriyuki & 高山, 憲之 & タカヤマ, ノリユキ & Arita, Fumiko & 有田, 富美子, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    6. Massimiliano Tani, 2003. "Do Foreigners Cushion Native Jobs? The Case of European Regions in the 1990s," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(4), pages 459-487, December.
    7. Huffman, Wallace E. & Evenson, Robert E., 2003. "New Econometric Evidence On Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Determinants: Impact Of Funding Sources," Working Papers 18201, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
    9. Attanasio, Orazio P, et al, 1999. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 22-35, January.
    10. John Gibson & Grant Scobie, 2001. "A cohort analysis of household income, consumption and saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 196-216.
    11. Ianchovichina, Elena & Darwin, Roy & Shoemaker, Robbin, 2001. "Resource use and technological progress in agriculture: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 275-291, August.
    12. Nico Keilman, 2001. "Uncertain population forecasts," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 490-491, August.
    13. Peter McDonald & Rebecca Kippen, 2001. "Labor Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries, 2000–2050," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, March.
    14. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    15. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving don’t justify tax incentives to boost saving," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 548-583.
    16. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "Growth, Distribution, and Demography: Some Lessons from History," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 241-271, July.
    17. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
    18. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ardelean, Adina & Lugovskyy, Volodymyr, 2007. "When Are Variety Gains from Trade Important? Domestic Productivity and the Cost of Protectionism," Conference papers 331662, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Babatunde, Musibau Adetunji, 2006. "Trade Policy Reform, Regional Integration and Export Performance in the ECOWAS Sub-Region," Conference papers 331466, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    4. Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rod, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," Conference papers 331414, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Ian Bain, 2007. "Projected Economic Growth in China and India: The Role of Demographic Change," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-477, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    6. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    7. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    8. Jung, Hyun-Joon & Na, Kyoung-Youn & Yoon, Chang-Ho, 2013. "The role of ICT in Korea’s economic growth: Productivity changes across industries since the 1990s," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 292-310.
    9. Nishimura, Yukihiro & Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Education choices, longevity and optimal policy in a Ben-Porath economy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-81.
    10. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    11. Erich Striessnig & Wolfgang Lutz, 2014. "How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(16), pages 465-492.
    12. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook & Lee, Jason, 2015. "How does information technology improve aggregate productivity? A new channel of productivity dispersion and reallocation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 999-1016.
    13. Li, Hongbin & Yang, Zheyu & Yao, Xianguo & Zhang, Haifeng & Zhang, Junsen, 2012. "Entrepreneurship, private economy and growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 948-961.
    14. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Michele Gragnolati & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351, April.
    16. Sanz Villarroya, Isabel, 2003. "Derechos de propiedad y crecimiento económico en Argentina : 1875-1990," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH dh030403, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    17. repec:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:s1:p:592-610 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2011. "Does demographic change matter for growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 659-677, June.
    19. Ianchovichina, Elena & Darwin, Roy & Shoemaker, Robbin, 2001. "Resource use and technological progress in agriculture: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 275-291, August.
    20. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Yang, Chuxiao & Wu, Haitao, 2021. "Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    21. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 265-297, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare05:137808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.