Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic
demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using an augmented GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated into four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age-gender groups in both labour force participation and savings behaviour, with secondary effects arising from variations in consumption preferences across these groups. As policies to control ageing in the developed countries, increased labour force participation by the aged and replacement migration are examined and shown to have very considerable effects on global economic performance.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 6125 3807
Fax: +61 2 6125 0744
Web page: http://rse.anu.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998.
"Growth, Distribution, and Demography: Some Lessons from History,"
Explorations in Economic History,
Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 241-271, July.
- Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Growth, Distribution and Demography: Some Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 6244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003.
"Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
- Martin MÃ¼hleisen & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Population Aging in Japan; Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2005-450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.