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Uncertain population forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Keilman

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Traditional population forecasts made by statistical agencies do not quantify uncertainty. But demographers and statisticians have developed methods to calculate probabilistic forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Keilman, 2001. "Uncertain population forecasts," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 490-491, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:412:y:2001:i:6846:d:10.1038_35087685
    DOI: 10.1038/35087685
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Atsede D. Tegegne & Marianne Penker & Maria Wurzinger, 2016. "Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 277-296, June.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    4. Wilson, Chris, 2002. "Forecast errors in global population projections: implications for food," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125608, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rod, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," Conference papers 331414, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Adelina Comas-Herrera & Alessandra di Maio & Alessandro Pozzi & Concepció Patxot & Cristiano Gori & Heinz Rothgang & Joan Costa i Font & Linda Pickard & Raphael Wittenberg, "undated". "How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 231, FEDEA.
    7. Chan, Ming Ming & Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rodney, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for Agricultural Markets," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137808, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    8. Torben M. Andersen & Marias H. Gestsson, 2021. "Annuitization and aggregate mortality risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 79-99, March.
    9. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
    10. Babatunde, Musibau Adetunji, 2006. "Trade Policy Reform, Regional Integration and Export Performance in the ECOWAS Sub-Region," Conference papers 331466, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Guy Abel & Jakub Bijak & Jonathan J. Forster & James Raymer & Peter W.F. Smith & Jackie S.T. Wong, 2013. "Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(43), pages 1187-1226.

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