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How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?


  • Adelina Comas-Herrera
  • Alessandra di Maio
  • Alessandro Pozzi
  • ConcepciÛ Patxot
  • Cristiano Gori
  • Heinz Rothgang
  • Joan Costa i Font
  • Linda Pickard
  • Raphael Wittenberg


This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term-care demand and expenditure estimates to "official" demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

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  • Adelina Comas-Herrera & Alessandra di Maio & Alessandro Pozzi & ConcepciÛ Patxot & Cristiano Gori & Heinz Rothgang & Joan Costa i Font & Linda Pickard & Raphael Wittenberg, "undated". "How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 231, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:231

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Joan Costa-Font & Concepcio Patxot, 2004. "The Intergenerational Impact of Long-term Care Financing Alternatives in Spain," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 599-619, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evelien Eggink & Isolde Woittiez & Michiel Ras, 2016. "Forecasting the use of elderly care: a static micro-simulation model," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(6), pages 681-691, July.

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