How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?
This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term-care demand and expenditure estimates to "official" demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.
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- Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Joan Costa-Font & Concepcio Patxot, 2004.
"The Intergenerational Impact of Long-term Care Financing Alternatives in Spain,"
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice,
Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 599-619, October.
- Joan Costa-Font & Concepcio Patxot, 2004. "The Intergenerational Impact of Long-term Care Financing Alternatives in Spain," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 599-619, October.
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