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The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends

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  • Vaclav Smil

Abstract

Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long‐term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaclav Smil, 2005. "The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 605-643, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:4:p:605-643
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00091.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Smil, Vaclav, 2006. "Technical Innovations and Their Consequences," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195168754.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Khan, Azizur Rahman & Riskin, Carl, 2001. "Inequality and Poverty in China in the Age of Globalization," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195136494.
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    6. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mr. Guy M Meredith & Mr. Ulrich Baumgartner, 1995. "Saving Behavior and the Asset Price "Bubble" in Japan: Analytical Studies," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/003, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
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    Cited by:

    1. David Coleman, 2009. "Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 449-478, September.
    2. Cubie L.L. Lau & Zinette Bergman & Manfred Max Bergman, 2019. "Environmental Protection and Corporate Responsibility: The Perspectives of Senior Managers and CxOs in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-17, July.

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