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Counting the missing poor in pre-industrial societies

Author

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  • Mathieu Lefebvre

    (Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France)

  • Pierre Pestieau

    (University of Liege, CORE and PSE, Liège, Belgium)

  • Gregory Ponthiere

    (UCLouvain, Hoover Chair in Economic and Social Ethics, 3 Place Montesquieu, 1348, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium)

Abstract

Under income-differentiated mortality, poverty measures suffer from a selection bias: they do not count the missing poor (i.e., persons who would have been counted as poor provided they did not die prematurely). The Pre-Industrial period being characterized by an evolutionary advantage (i.e., a higher number of surviving children per household) of the non-poor over the poor, one may expect that the missing poor bias is substantial during that period. This paper quantifies the missing poor bias in Pre-Industrial societies, by computing the hypothetical headcount poverty rates that would have prevailed provided the non-poor did not benefit from an evolutionary advantage over the poor. Using data on Pre-Industrial England and France, we show that the sign and size of the missing poor bias are sensitive to the degree of downward social mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2023. "Counting the missing poor in pre-industrial societies," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 17(1), pages 155-183, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:17:y:2023:i:1:p:155-183
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-022-00243-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty · Measurement · Selection efects · Missing poor;

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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