IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jecsur/v18y2004i4p539-588.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models

Author

Listed:
  • Suhejla Hoti
  • Michael McAleer

Abstract

Country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community over the last two decades. The importance of country ratings is underscored by the existence of several major country risk rating agencies, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, Euromoney, Institutional Investor, International Country Risk Guide, Moody's, Political Risk Services, and Standard and Poor's. These risk rating agencies employ different methods to determine country risk ratings, combining a range of qualitative and quantitative information regarding alternative measures of economic, financial and political risk into associated composite risk ratings. However, the accuracy of any risk rating agency with regard to any or all of these measures is open to question. For this reason, it is necessary to review the literature relating to empirical country risk models according to established statistical and econometric criteria used in estimation, evaluation and forecasting. Such an evaluation permits a critical assessment of the relevance and practicality of the country risk literature. The paper also provides an international comparison of risk ratings for twelve countries from six geographic regions. These ratings are compiled by the International Country Risk Guide, which is the only rating agency to provide detailed and consistent monthly data over an extended period for a large number of countries. The time series data permit a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings, and highlight the importance of economic, financial and political risk ratings as components of a composite risk rating. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer, 2004. "An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 539-588, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i:4:p:539-588
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=joes&volume=18&issue=4&year=2004&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, pages 465-490.
    2. Justman, Moshe & Gradstein, Mark, 1999. "The Industrial Revolution, Political Transition, and the Subsequent Decline in Inequality in 19th-Century Britain," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 109-127, April.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Democracies Pay Higher Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 707-738.
    4. repec:cup:apsrev:v:53:y:1959:i:01:p:69-105_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Political Equilibrium, Income Distribution, and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 755-776.
    6. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 565-591, September.
    7. Redor,Dominique, 2010. "Wage Inequalities in East and West," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521134149, March.
    8. Saint-Paul, Gilles & Verdier, Thierry, 1993. "Education, democracy and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 399-407, December.
    9. Helliwell, John F., 1994. "Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 225-248, April.
    10. Adam Przeworski & Fernando Limongi, 1993. "Political Regimes and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 51-69, Summer.
    11. Milanovic, Branko, 1999. "Do more unequal countries redistribute more? does the median voter hypothesis hold?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2264, The World Bank.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 938-963, September.
    13. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    14. Atkinson,Anthony Barnes & Micklewright,John, 1992. "Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Distribution of Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438827, December.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2000. "Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, and Growth in Historical Perspective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1167-1199.
    16. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-187, June.
    17. Husted, Thomas A & Kenny, Lawrence W, 1997. "The Effect of the Expansion of the Voting Franchise on the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 54-82, February.
    18. Gouveia, Miguel & Masia, Neal A, 1998. "Does the Median Voter Model Explain the Size of Government?: Evidence from the States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 97(1-2), pages 159-177, October.
    19. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 351-371, September.
    20. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 565-591, September.
    21. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    22. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    23. Li, Hongyi & Squire, Lyn & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 26-43, January.
    24. Phelps Brown, Henry, 1988. "Egalitarianism and the Generation of Inequality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286486.
    25. John R. Lott & Jr. & Lawrence W. Kenny, 1999. "Did Women's Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of Government?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1163-1198, December.
    26. Gary S. Becker, 1983. "A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(3), pages 371-400.
    27. Bassett, William F. & Burkett, John P. & Putterman, Louis, 1999. "Income distribution, government transfers, and the problem of unequal influence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 207-228, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen & Apostolou, Apostolos, 2013. "Brazil's bank spread in international context : from macro to micro drivers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6611, The World Bank.
    2. McAleer, Michael & da Veiga, Bernardo & Hoti, Suhejla, 2011. "Value-at-Risk for country risk ratings," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, pages 1454-1463.
    3. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    4. Barbara Meller, 2013. "The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 477-504, September.
    5. Cruces, Juan J., 2006. "Statistical properties of country credit ratings," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 27-51, March.
    6. Fratostiteanu, Cosmin & Tanasie, Anca, 2007. "The country risk for Romania," MPRA Paper 5857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nath, Hiranya K., 2009. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 69-94.
    8. Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Comparative analysis of risk ratings for the East European region," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 449-462.
    9. Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Modelling country spillover effects in country risk ratings," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 324-345, December.
    10. Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2004. "Modelling Environmental Risk," IHEID Working Papers 08-2004, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Marlene Grande & Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2011. "Linking entry mode choices of MNCs with countries’ corruption. A review," OBEGEF Working Papers 008, OBEGEF - Observatório de Economia e Gestão de Fraude;OBEGEF Working Papers on Fraud and Corruption.
    12. Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Tang, Ling & Wu, Dengsheng, 2012. "Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2494-2503.
    13. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    14. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals Latin American countries," Working Papers 14-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    15. Othmani, Abdelhafidh & Slimani, Slah & Bakari, Sayef, 2015. "Les Effets de la Corruption sur le Commerce Extérieur de la Tunisie : Une Approche du Modèle de Gravité Statique durant la Période 1999-2012," MPRA Paper 80894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    17. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil and Home Country Risk," NIPE Working Papers 7/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    18. Shareef, Riaz & Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Small island tourism economies and country risk ratings," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 553-566.
    19. Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American countries," Working Papers 2014-02, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    20. Othmani, Abdelhafidh & Slimani, Slah & Bakari, Sayef, 2015. "Les Effets de la Concurrence sur le Commerce Extérieur de la Tunisie : Une Approche du Modèle de Gravité Statique durant la Période 1999-2012
      [The Effects of Competition on Foreign Trade in Tunisia
      ," MPRA Paper 80885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Chopra, Parvesh K. & Kanji, Gopal K., 2010. "On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 479-515.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i:4:p:539-588. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.