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Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment

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  • Somerville, R. A.
  • Taffler, R. J.

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  • Somerville, R. A. & Taffler, R. J., 1995. "Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-297, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:19:y:1995:i:2:p:281-297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek Bunn & George Wright, 1991. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 501-518, May.
    2. Pierre Dhonte, 1975. "Describing External Debt Situations: A Roll-over Approach (La description de l'endettement extérieur: l'approche du refinancement) (La refinanciación y su utilidad para la descripción de situacione," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 159-186, March.
    3. Feder, Gershon & Ross, Knud Z, 1982. " Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 679-691, June.
    4. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
    5. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    6. Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June.
    7. Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean Roy, 1991. "The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(1), pages 135-142, March.
    8. Briance Mascarenhas & Ole Christian Sand, 1985. "Country-Risk Assessment System in Banks: Patterns and Performance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, March.
    9. Nicholas Sargen, 1977. "Economic indicators and country risk appraisal," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 19-35.
    10. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    11. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 651-669, December.
    12. Slovic, Paul, 1972. "Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision-Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 779-799, September.
    13. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    14. Libby, Robert & Lewis, Barry L., 1982. "Human information processing research in accounting: The state of the art in 1982," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-285, July.
    15. Schmidt, Reinhart, 1984. "Early warning of debt rescheduling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 357-370, June.
    16. John B Morgan, 1986. "A New Look at Debt Rescheduling Indicators and Models," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 17(2), pages 37-54, June.
    17. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
    18. Hamer, Michelle M., 1983. "Failure prediction: Sensitivity of classification accuracy to alternative statistical methods and variable sets," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 289-307.
    19. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
    20. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & Mckenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1989. "Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 173-177, December.
    21. Shanteau, James, 1989. "Cognitive heuristics and biases in behavioral auditing: Review, comments and observations," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 165-177, January.
    22. Briance Mascarenhas & Ole Christian Sand, 1989. "Combination of Forecasts in the International Context: Predicting Debt Reschedulings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 20(3), pages 539-552, September.
    23. Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Logit versus discriminant analysis : A specification test and application to corporate bankruptcies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 151-178, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    2. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Forecasting sovereign default using panel models: A comparative analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 228, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky, 2011. "Models for Moody’s Bank Ratings," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 88-110, April.
    4. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
    5. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
    6. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Elements in the Design of an Early Warning System for Sovereign Default," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 231, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Eriksson, Kent & Jonsson, Sara & Lindbergh, Jessica & Lindstrand, Angelika, 2014. "Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1074-1085.
    8. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2009. "Models for the External Support Component of Moody's Bank Ratings," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 14(2), pages 3-23.

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