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Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment

  • Somerville, R. A.
  • Taffler, R. J.
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-3YB56TV-2J/2/2c269e816b3af033de4905d793646e96
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 19 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 281-297

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:19:y:1995:i:2:p:281-297
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    1. Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Logit versus discriminant analysis : A specification test and application to corporate bankruptcies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 151-178, March.
    2. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 651-669, December.
    3. Feder, Gershon & Ross, Knud Z, 1982. " Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 679-91, June.
    4. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
    5. Nicholas Sargen, 1977. "Economic indicators and country risk appraisal," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 19-35.
    6. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    7. Briance Mascarenhas & Ole Christian Sand, 1989. "Combination of Forecasts in the International Context: Predicting Debt Reschedulings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 539-552, September.
    8. Slovic, Paul, 1972. "Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision-Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 779-99, September.
    9. Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean Roy, 1991. "The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 135-142, March.
    10. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
    11. Hamer, Michelle M., 1983. "Failure prediction: Sensitivity of classification accuracy to alternative statistical methods and variable sets," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 289-307.
    12. John B Morgan, 1986. "A New Look at Debt Rescheduling Indicators and Models," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 37-54, June.
    13. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & Mckenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1989. "Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 173-177, December.
    14. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
    15. Shanteau, James, 1989. "Cognitive heuristics and biases in behavioral auditing: Review, comments and observations," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 165-177, January.
    16. Schmidt, Reinhart, 1984. "Early warning of debt rescheduling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 357-370, June.
    17. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
    18. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    19. Libby, Robert & Lewis, Barry L., 1982. "Human information processing research in accounting: The state of the art in 1982," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-285, July.
    20. Derek Bunn & George Wright, 1991. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 501-518, May.
    21. Briance Mascarenhas & Ole Christian Sand, 1985. "Country-Risk Assessment System in Banks: Patterns and Performance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, March.
    22. Pierre Dhonte, 1975. "Describing External Debt Situations: A Roll-over Approach (La description de l'endettement extérieur: l'approche du refinancement) (La refinanciación y su utilidad para la descripción de situacione," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 159-186, March.
    23. Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June.
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