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Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity

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Listed author(s):
  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Kalotychou, Elena

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-9473(06)00284-2
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 51 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 1420-1441

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:51:y:2006:i:2:p:1420-1441
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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  1. Donkers, A.C.D. & Melenberg, B., 2002. "Testing predictive performance of binary choice models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
  3. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Smith, Ron, 2006. "Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2361-2380, May.
  4. Somerville, R. A. & Taffler, R. J., 1995. "Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-297, May.
  5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
  6. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
  9. Sotiris Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878.
  10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  11. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3448-3469, April.
  12. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, Diciembre.
  13. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
  14. Amadou N Sy & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/44, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, 1986. "Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1243-1248, September.
  16. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
  17. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
  19. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
  20. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  21. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
  22. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
  23. Marcel Peter, 2002. "Estimating Default Probabilities of Emerging Market Sovereigns: A New Look at a Not-So-New Literature," IHEID Working Papers 06-2002, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  24. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  25. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:

  1. Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2008. "Sieve bootstrap t-tests on long-run average parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3354-3370, March.
  2. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2014. "Ending over-lending : Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Research Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland.
  3. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
  4. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
  5. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
  6. Bartolucci, Francesco & Nigro, Valentina, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of an extended latent Markov model for clustered binary panel data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3470-3483, April.
  7. Alina Mihaela Dima & Simona Vasilache, 2016. "Credit Risk modeling for Companies Default Prediction using Neural Networks," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 127-143, September.
  8. Peltonen, Tuomas & Sarlin, Peter & Rancan, Michela, 2015. "Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises," Working Paper Series 1866, European Central Bank.
  9. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, 02.
  10. Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "Credit Risk Management," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 12(4), pages 84-137.
  11. Thangjam Rajeshwar Singh, 2011. "An ordered probit model of an early warning system for predicting financial crisis in India," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 185-201 Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
  13. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Mapping the state of financial stability," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Bellini, Tiziano & Riani, Marco, 2012. "Robust analysis of default intensity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3276-3285.
  15. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.
  16. Selin Sayek & Fatma Taskin, 2014. "Financial crises: lessons from history for today," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(79), pages 447-493, 07.
  17. Bi-Huei Tsai & Chih-Huei Chang, 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress Based on the Credit Cycle Index: A Two-Stage Empirical Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 67-79, May.

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