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Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply

  • Marga Peeters

Due to its pyramid population structure, Egypt needs to create jobs at a high pace to absorb the many new entrants at its labour market. This article structurally models and quantifies the impact of these demographic shocks and the shedding of public sector jobs on unemployment. The findings indicate that Egypt needs to grow at 5% for many years to come. Job creation better occurs in the private than in the public sector. Egypt’s public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the numerous public sector employees but also because of high public wage growth.

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Article provided by Economics and Econometrics Society in its journal Journal of Economics and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 54 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 58-92

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Handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:54:y:2011:i:2:p:58-92
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  1. Gregory, Robert G. & Borland, Jeff, 1999. "Recent developments in public sector labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 53, pages 3573-3630 Elsevier.
  2. Assaad, Ragu & El-Hamidi, Fatma & Ahmed, Akhter U., 2000. "The determinants of employment status in Egypt," FCND discussion papers 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  4. Klein, Lawrence R, 1969. "Estimation on Interdependent Systems in Macroeconometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 171-92, April.
  5. Binzel, Christine & Assaad, Ragui, 2011. "Egyptian men working abroad: Labour supply responses by the women left behind," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(S1), pages S98-S114.
  6. Herrera, Santiago & Youssef, Hoda & Youssef, Hoda & Zaki, Chahir, 2010. "Egypt beyond the crisis : medium-term challenges for sustained growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5451, The World Bank.
  7. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. F.J.H. Don, 2004. "How Econometric Models help Policy Makers: Theory and Practice," De Economist, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 177-195, 06.
  10. Groot, Loek & Peeters, Marga, 2011. "A global view on demographic pressure and labour market participation," MPRA Paper 32057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Maria Demertzis & Peter van Els & Sybille Grob & Marga Peeters, 2006. "EUROMON: the multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," DNB Occasional Studies 401, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  12. Leo de Haan & Aneta Naumovska & Marga Peeters, 2001. "MAKMODEL, A Macro-Econometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2001-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
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