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Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply

  • Marga Peeters

Due to its pyramid population structure, Egypt needs to create jobs at a high pace to absorb the many new entrants at its labour market. This article structurally models and quantifies the impact of these demographic shocks and the shedding of public sector jobs on unemployment. The findings indicate that Egypt needs to grow at 5% for many years to come. Job creation better occurs in the private than in the public sector. Egypt’s public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the numerous public sector employees but also because of high public wage growth.

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Article provided by Economics and Econometrics Society in its journal Journal of Economics and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 54 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 58-92

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Handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:54:y:2011:i:2:p:58-92
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  1. Assaad, Ragu & El-Hamidi, Fatma & Ahmed, Akhter U., 2000. "The determinants of employment status in Egypt," FCND briefs 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Herrera, Santiago & Youssef, Hoda & Youssef, Hoda & Zaki, Chahir, 2010. "Egypt beyond the crisis : medium-term challenges for sustained growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5451, The World Bank.
  4. Binzel, Christine & Assaad, Ragui, 2011. "Egyptian Men Working Abroad: Labor Supply Responses by the Women Left Behind," IZA Discussion Papers 5589, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Groot, Loek & Peeters, Marga, 2011. "A global view on demographic pressure and labour market participation," MPRA Paper 32057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Leo de Haan & Aneta Naumovska & Marga Peeters, 2001. "MAKMODEL, A Macro-Econometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2001-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
  7. Maria Demertzis & Peter van Els & Sybille Grob & Marga Peeters, 2006. "EUROMON: the multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," DNB Occasional Studies 401, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Klein, Lawrence R, 1969. "Estimation on Interdependent Systems in Macroeconometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 171-92, April.
  9. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India," CAMA Working Papers 2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Gregory, Robert G. & Borland, Jeff, 1999. "Recent developments in public sector labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 53, pages 3573-3630 Elsevier.
  11. Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
  12. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
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