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Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply


  • Marga Peeters


Due to its pyramid population structure, Egypt needs to create jobs at a high pace to absorb the many new entrants at its labour market. This article structurally models and quantifies the impact of these demographic shocks and the shedding of public sector jobs on unemployment. The findings indicate that Egypt needs to grow at 5% for many years to come. Job creation better occurs in the private than in the public sector. Egypt’s public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the numerous public sector employees but also because of high public wage growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marga Peeters, 2011. "Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 58-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:54:y:2011:i:2:p:58-92

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
    2. Maria Demertzis & Peter van Els & Sybille Grob & Marga Peeters, 2006. "EUROMON: the multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," DNB Occasional Studies 401, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Binzel, Christine & Assaad, Ragui, 2011. "Egyptian men working abroad: Labour supply responses by the women left behind," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(S1), pages 98-114.
    4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
    6. Assaad, Ragu & El-Hamidi, Fatma & Ahmed, Akhter U., 2000. "The determinants of employment status in Egypt," FCND briefs 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Leo de Haan & Aneta Naumovska & Marga Peeters, 2001. "MAKMODEL, A Macro-Econometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2001-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    8. Herrera, Santiago & Youssef, Hoda & Youssef, Hoda & Zaki, Chahir, 2010. "Egypt beyond the crisis : medium-term challenges for sustained growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5451, The World Bank.
    9. Gregory, Robert G. & Borland, Jeff, 1999. "Recent developments in public sector labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 53, pages 3573-3630 Elsevier.
    10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Klein, Lawrence R, 1969. "Estimation on Interdependent Systems in Macroeconometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 171-192, April.
    12. F.J.H. Don, 2004. "How Econometric Models help Policy Makers: Theory and Practice," De Economist, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 177-195, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peeters, Marga & Sabri, Nidal Rachid, 2012. "International financial integration of Mediterranean economies : A bird’s-eye view," MPRA Paper 38081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Peeters, Marga, 2012. "Asymmetric demographic pressure in South-Mediterranean versus North-Mediterranean economies and its impact on international gross capital flows," MPRA Paper 39635, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Demography; labour supply; employment; public sector employment; public finance.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand


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