The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: VAR Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany
Estimating saving and fertility simultaneously by the VAR method, we find that social security cover has a positive effect on household saving, and a negative effect on fertility. In Germany, as in other countries where the hypothesis was tested,social security is thus good for growth. A possible explanation for this unconventional finding is that compulsory saving in the form of pension contributions tends to displace intra-family transfers, rather than asset formation. However, the negative effect of social security on fertility tends to erode the system’s own contributory base, because it reduces the number of future contributors. That is one of the reasons why, in Germany as elsewhere, pay-as-you-go pension systems tend to be financially unstable. To some extent, this is counteracted by child-related benefits, which tend to encourage fertility, but the effect appears to be weak.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.carloalberto.org/child-collegiocarloalberto/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 1998.
"The Pay-As-You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device,"
NBER Working Papers
6610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1998. "The Pay-As You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," CEPR Discussion Papers 2023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1996. "Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 283-294, May.
- Graham, John W., 1989. "International differences in saving rates and the life cycle hypothesis : Reply and further evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1499-1507, September.
- Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpc:wplist:wp07_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giovanni Bert)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.