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Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Martin Werding

Abstract

In den Verhandlungen zur EU-Osterweiterung steht im ersten Halbjahr 2001 die Regelung zur Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit auf der Tagesordnung. Mittlerweile liegen mehrere Schätzungen des Zuwanderungspotentials vor, das nach der EU-Erweiterung für Deutschland oder ganz Westeuropa wirksam werden kann. Die öffentliche Diskussion konzentriert sich dabei vor allem auf das jeweils projizierte Migrationsvolumen, das für Deutschland nach Ablauf von 15 Jahren auf Werte zwischen 2 und 6 Mill. Personen geschätzt wird. Letztlich sind es aber nicht so sehr die nur schwer vorauszuschätzenden Zuwanderungszahlen, sondern in erster Linie die bestehenden ökonomischen und rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen für Wanderungen innerhalb einer erweiterten EU, die als eigentliche Ursache möglicher Folgeprobleme anzusehen sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:08:p:18-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1995. " A Theory of the Welfare State," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 495-526, December.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2002. "EU Enlargement and the Future of the Welfare State," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 104-115, February.
    3. George J. Borjas, 1995. "The Economic Benefits from Immigration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 3-22, Spring.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "EU Enlargement, Migration, and Lessons from German Unification," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(3), pages 299-314, August.
    5. Wolfgang Ochel, 2000. "Mittel- und osteuropäische Einwohner in Westdeutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(19-20), pages 49-49, July.
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, September.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1996. "Social insurance, incentives and risk taking," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 259-280, July.
    8. Borjas, George J, 1999. "Immigration and Welfare Magnets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 607-637, October.
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1991. "Macroeconomic Aspects of German Unification," NBER Working Papers 3596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Clemens Fuest & Marcel Thum, 2001. "Zuwanderungsgewinne bei unvollständigen Arbeitsmärkten?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 28-31, May.
    11. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Immigration und Arbeitsmarkt: Eine oekonomische Perspektive," IZA Discussion Papers 7, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Prettner & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2007. "Effects of the Full Opening of the Austrian Labor Market to EU-8 Citizens," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 50-66.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, March.
    3. Möllers, Judith, 2006. "Außerlandwirtschaftliche Diversifikation im Transformationsprozzess: Diversifikationsentscheidungen und -strategien ländlicher Haushalte in Slowenien und Mazedonien," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 35, number 92495.
    4. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Richter, Wolfram F., 2002. "Social Security and Taxation of Labour Subject to Subsidiarity and Freedom of Movement," IZA Discussion Papers 490, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Das demographische Defizit – die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und die Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
    7. Dickmann, Nicola, 2004. "Ein demographisches Porträt der osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 21-26.
    8. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Europe’s Demographic Deficit A Plea For A Child Pension System," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 1-45, December.
    9. Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2003. "EU-Osterweiterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(22), pages 10-17, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU-Erweiterung; Osteuropa; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität; Wohlfahrt; Arbeitsmarkt; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • J39 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Other
    • J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General

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