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A Stochastic Model for the Analysis of Demographic Risk in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Funds

  • Alessandro Fiori Maccioni

    (CRENoS and University of Sassari)

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    This research presents an analysis of the demographic risk related to future membership patterns in pension funds with restricted entrance, financed under a pay-as-you-go scheme. The paper, therefore, proposes a stochastic model for investigating the behaviour of the demographic variable "new entrants" and the influence it exerts on the financial dynamics of such funds. Further information on pension funds of Italian professional categories and an application to the Cassa Nazionale di Previdenza e Assistenza dei Dottori Commercialisti (CNPADC) are then provided.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1106.5081
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1106.5081.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2011
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    Publication status: Published in Mathemathical Methods in Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 41-60, 2008
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1106.5081
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Carlo Bianchi & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro A. Vagliasindi, 2003. "Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 139-173, 08.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "Pension Reform and Demographic Crisis: Why a Funded System is Needed and why it is not Needed," CESifo Working Paper Series 195, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2003. "Solvency requirements for pension annuities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 127-157, July.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    5. Angrisani, M., Attias, A., Bianchi, S. & Varga, Z., 2004. "Demographic dynamics for the pay-as-you-go pension system," Pure Mathematics and Applications, Department of Mathematics, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 15(4), pages 357-374.
    6. Haberman, Steven, 1997. "Stochastic investment returns and contribution rate risk in a defined benefit pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 127-139, April.
    7. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2001. "Pensionmetrics: stochastic pension plan design and value-at-risk during the accumulation phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-215, October.
    8. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2003. "Pensionmetrics 2: stochastic pension plan design during the distribution phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 29-47, August.
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1998. "The Pay-As-You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," NBER Working Papers 6610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ab O, G. & Mahieu, G. & Patxot, C., 2004. "On the optimality of PAYG pension systems in an endogenous fertility setting," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 35-62, March.
    11. Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
    12. Gerrard, Russell & Haberman, Steven & Vigna, Elena, 2004. "Optimal investment choices post-retirement in a defined contribution pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 321-342, October.
    13. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Colombo, Luigi & Haberman, Steven, 2005. "Optimal contributions in a defined benefit pension scheme with stochastic new entrants," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 335-354, October.
    15. Mandl, Petr & Mazurova, Lucie, 1996. "Harmonic analysis of pension funding methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 203-214, April.
    16. A. Roger Thatcher & Väinö Kannisto & Kirill F. Andreev, 2002. "The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Olivieri, Annamaria, 2001. "Uncertainty in mortality projections: an actuarial perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, October.
    18. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    19. Guillaume Plantin & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2007. "Introduction to When Insurers Go Bust: An Economic Analysis of the Role and Design of Prudential Regulation
      [When Insurers Go Bust: An Economic Analysis of the Role and Design of Prudential Regulat
      ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
    20. Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Parker, Gary, 1997. "Stochastic pension fund modelling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 43-79, October.
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