Non mean reverting affine processes for stochastic mortality
In this paper we use doubly stochastic processes (or Cox processes) in order to model the random evolution of mortality of an individual. These processes have been widely used in the credit risk literature in modelling default arrival, and in this context have proved to be quite flexible, especially when the intensity process is of the affine class. We investigate the applicability of affine processes in describing the individual's intensity of mortality, and provide a calibration to the Italian and UK populations. Results from the calibration seem to suggest that, in spite of their popularity in the financial context, mean reverting processes are not suitable for describing the death intensity of individuals. On the contrary, affine processes whose deterministic part increases exponentially seem to be appropriate. As for the stochastic part, negative jumps seem to do a better job than diffusive components. Stress analysis and analytical results indicate that increasing the randomness of the intensity process results in improvements in survivorship.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 011 6706060
Fax: +39 011 6706060
Web page: http://www.esomas.unito.it/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Domenico Menicucci, 2001.
"Optimal two-object auctions with synergies,"
ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series
18-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2000.
"Risk, Ambigity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs,"
1085, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7616, David K. Levine.
- Massimo Marinacci & Paolo Ghirardato, 2001. "Risk, ambiguity, and the separation of utility and beliefs," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 21-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1143, Econometric Society.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:icr:wpmath:4-2005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Pellegrino)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.