A note on stochastic survival probabilities and their calibration
In this note we use doubly stochastic processes (or Cox processes) in order to model the evolution of the stochastic force of mortality of an individual aged x. These processes have been widely used in the credit risk literature in modelling the default arrival, and in this context have proved to be quite flexible and useful. We investigate the applicability of these processes in describing the individual's mortality, and provide a calibration to the Italian case. Results from the calibration are twofold. Firstly, the stochastic intensities seem to better capture the development of medicine and long term care which is under our daily observation. Secondly, when pricing insurance products such as life annuities, we observe a remarkable premium increase, although the expected residual lifetime is essentially unchanged.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Unione Sovietica, 218bis - 10134 Torino - Italy|
Phone: +39 011 6706060
Fax: +39 011 6706062
Web page: http://www.esomas.unito.it/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manatunga, Amita K. & Oakes, David, 1996. "A Measure of Association for Bivariate Frailty Distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 60-74, January.
- Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2001.
"Risk, Ambiguity, and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs,"
Mathematics of Operations Research,
INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 864-890, November.
- Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7616, David K. Levine.
- Massimo Marinacci & Paolo Ghirardato, 2001. "Risk, ambiguity, and the separation of utility and beliefs," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 21-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2000. "Risk, Ambigity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Working Papers 1085, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1143, Econometric Society.
- Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Artzner, Philippe & Delbaen, Freddy, 1992. "Credit Risk and Prepayment Option," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 81-96, May.
- Domenico Menicucci, 2003. "Optimal two-object auctions with synergies," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 8(2), pages 143-164, October.
- Domenico Menicucci, 2001. "Optimal two-object auctions with synergies," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 18-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2005. "Non mean reverting affine processes for stochastic mortality," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 4-2005, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2006. "Non mean reverting affne processes for stochastic mortality," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 30, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Dahl, Mikkel, 2004. "Stochastic mortality in life insurance: market reserves and mortality-linked insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 113-136, August.
- Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)