Modelling stochastic mortality for dependent lives
Stochastic mortality, i.e. modelling death arrival via a jump process with stochastic intensity, is gaining an increasing reputation as a way to represent mortality risk. This paper is a first attempt to model the mortality risk of couples of individuals, according to the stochastic intensity approach. Dependence between the survival times of the members of a couple is captured by an Archimedean copula. We also provide a methodology for fitting the joint survival function by working separately on the (analytical) marginals and on the (analytical) copula. First, we provide a sample-based calibration for the intensity, using a time-homogeneous, non mean-reverting, affine process: this gives the marginal survival functions. Then we calibrate and select the best fit copula according to the Wang and Wells [Wang,Â W., Wells, M.T., 2000b. Model selection and semiparametric inference for bivariate failure-time data. J. Amer. Statis. Assoc. 95, 62-72] methodology for censored data. By coupling the calibrated marginals with the best fit copula, we obtain a joint survival function, which incorporates the stochastic nature of mortality improvements. We apply the methodology to a well known insurance data set, using a sample generation. The best fit copula turns out to be one listed in [Nelsen, R.B., 2006. An Introduction to Copulas, Second ed. In: Springer Series], which implies not only positive dependence, but dependence increasing with age.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2005.
"Non mean reverting affine processes for stochastic mortality,"
ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series
4-2005, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2006. "Non mean reverting affne processes for stochastic mortality," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 30, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Dahl, Mikkel, 2004. "Stochastic mortality in life insurance: market reserves and mortality-linked insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 113-136, August.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000.
"Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
- Artzner, Philippe & Delbaen, Freddy, 1992. "Credit Risk and Prepayment Option," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 81-96, May.
- Christian Genest & Jean-François Quessy & Bruno Rémillard, 2006. "Goodness-of-fit Procedures for Copula Models Based on the Probability Integral Transformation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 337-366.
- Schrager, David F., 2006. "Affine stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 81-97, February.
- Manatunga, Amita K. & Oakes, David, 1996. "A Measure of Association for Bivariate Frailty Distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 60-74, January.
- Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:43:y:2008:i:2:p:234-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.