Mortality Surface by Means of Continuous Time Cohort Models
We study and calibrate a cohort-based model which captures the characteristics of a mortality surface with a parsimonious, continuous-time fac- tor approach. The model allows for imperfect correlation of mortality intensity across generations. It is implemented on UK data for the period 1900-2008. Calibration by means of stochastic search and the Differential Evolution opti- mization algorithm proves to yield robust and stable parameters. We provide in-sample and out-of-sample, deterministic as well as stochastic forecasts. Cal- ibration confirms that correlation across generations is smaller than one.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.carloalberto.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dahl, Mikkel, 2004. "Stochastic mortality in life insurance: market reserves and mortality-linked insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 113-136, August.
- Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
- Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999.
"Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions,"
NBER Working Papers
7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
- LUCIANO, Elisa & VIGNA, Elena, 2008. "Mortality risk via affine stochastic intensities: calibration and empirical relevance," MPRA Paper 59627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Manfred Gilli & Enrico Schumann, 2009. "Heuristic Optimisation in Financial Modelling," Working Papers 007, COMISEF.
- Schrager, David F., 2006. "Affine stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 81-97, February.
- Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
- Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
- Ardia, David & Ospina, Juan & Giraldo, Giraldo, 2010. "Jump-Diffusion Calibration using Differential Evolution," MPRA Paper 26184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Oct 2010.
- Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giovanni Bert)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.