IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v8y2020i4p121-d445668.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Longevity Modelling and Pricing under a Dependent Multi-Cohort Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Fadoua Zeddouk

    (Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain, Voie du Roman Pays 20, 1348 Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium)

  • Pierre Devolder

    (Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain, Voie du Roman Pays 20, 1348 Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium)

Abstract

We propose a multi-cohort model that is able to capture the mortality correlation between different cohorts. The model is based on the Hull and White process to which we incorporate inter-generational risk factors, by modifying its stochastic part. We provide a pricing framework for a new survival forward contract under the Cost of Capital, risk-neutral and Sharpe approaches, allowing to cover the global multi-cohort longevity risk. We give numerical illustrations for Belgian cohorts, and we compute the price of the longevity derivative under the proposed methods, for different correlation levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadoua Zeddouk & Pierre Devolder, 2020. "Longevity Modelling and Pricing under a Dependent Multi-Cohort Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-23, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:121-:d:445668
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/4/121/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/4/121/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hunt, Andrew & Villegas, Andrés M., 2015. "Robustness and convergence in the Lee–Carter model with cohort effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 186-202.
    2. Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
    3. Fadoua Zeddouk & Pierre Devolder, 2019. "Pricing of Longevity Derivatives and Cost of Capital," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-29, April.
    4. Zeddouk, Fadoua & Devolder, Pierre, 2020. "Mean reversion in stochastic mortality: why and how?," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2020018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2017. "Maximum Market Price of Longevity Risk under Solvency Regimes: The Case of Solvency II," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
    7. Zeddouk, Fadoua & Devolder, Pierre, 2019. "Pricing of Longevity Derivatives and Cost of Capital," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2019033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. Coughlan, Guy & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa & Ye, Yijing & Kumar, Sumit & Cairns, Andrew & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2011. "Longevity hedging 101: A framework for longevity basis risk analysis and hedge effectiveness," MPRA Paper 35743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Schrager, David F., 2006. "Affine stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 81-97, February.
    10. Jevtić, Petar & Luciano, Elisa & Vigna, Elena, 2013. "Mortality surface by means of continuous time cohort models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 122-133.
    11. Tristan Guillaume, 2017. "A Useful Result on the Covariance between Ito Integrals," Post-Print hal-02980370, HAL.
    12. Dahl, Mikkel, 2004. "Stochastic mortality in life insurance: market reserves and mortality-linked insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 113-136, August.
    13. Guy Coughlan & Marwa Khalaf-Allah & Yijing Ye & Sumit Kumar & Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2011. "Longevity Hedging 101," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 150-176.
    14. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    15. Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
    16. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Zhou, Rui & Hardy, Mary, 2015. "A step-by-step guide to building two-population stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 121-134.
    17. Meyricke, Ramona & Sherris, Michael, 2014. "Longevity risk, cost of capital and hedging for life insurers under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 147-155.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    2. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    3. Jevtić, Petar & Regis, Luca, 2019. "A continuous-time stochastic model for the mortality surface of multiple populations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 181-195.
    4. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
    5. Zhou, Hongjuan & Zhou, Kenneth Q. & Li, Xianping, 2022. "Stochastic mortality dynamics driven by mixed fractional Brownian motion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 218-238.
    6. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Guy Coughlan & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2013. "The New Life Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 501-558, September.
    7. Wang, Ling & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2021. "Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and risk management with long-range dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Rihab Bedoui & Islem Kedidi, 2018. "Modeling Longevity Risk using Consistent Dynamics Affine Mortality Models," Working Papers hal-01678050, HAL.
    9. Ling Wang & Mei Choi Chiu & Hoi Ying Wong, 2020. "Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and risk management with long-range dependence," Papers 2009.09572, arXiv.org.
    10. Yang Chang & Michael Sherris, 2018. "Longevity Risk Management and the Development of a Value-Based Longevity Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
    11. Virginia R. Young, 2007. "Pricing Life Insurance under Stochastic Mortality via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio: Theorems and Proofs," Papers 0705.1297, arXiv.org.
    12. Anastasia Novokreshchenova, 2016. "Predicting Human Mortality: Quantitative Evaluation of Four Stochastic Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, December.
    13. McCarthy, David G. & Wang, Po-Lin, 2021. "Pooling mortality risk in Eurozone state pension liabilities: An application of a Bayesian coherent multi-population cohort-based mortality model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 459-485.
    14. Selin Özen & Şule Şahin, 2021. "A Two-Population Mortality Model to Assess Longevity Basis Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Ludkovski, Michael & Young, Virginia R., 2008. "Indifference pricing of pure endowments and life annuities under stochastic hazard and interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 14-30, February.
    16. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2016. "It’s all in the hidden states: A longevity hedging strategy with an explicit measure of population basis risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 301-319.
    17. Jevtić, Petar & Luciano, Elisa & Vigna, Elena, 2013. "Mortality surface by means of continuous time cohort models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 122-133.
    18. Andrew J.G. Cairns & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Carsten P.T. Rosenskjold & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2016. "Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index," CREATES Research Papers 2016-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Chen, Bingzheng & Zhang, Lihong & Zhao, Lin, 2010. "On the robustness of longevity risk pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 358-373, December.
    20. Börger, Matthias & Freimann, Arne & Ruß, Jochen, 2021. "A combined analysis of hedge effectiveness and capital efficiency in longevity hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 309-326.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:121-:d:445668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.