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Longevity hedging 101: A framework for longevity basis risk analysis and hedge effectiveness

Author

Listed:
  • Coughlan, Guy
  • Khalaf-Allah, Marwa
  • Ye, Yijing
  • Kumar, Sumit
  • Cairns, Andrew
  • Blake, David
  • Dowd, Kevin

Abstract

Basis risk is an important consideration when hedging longevity risk with instruments based on longevity indices, since the longevity experience of the hedged exposure may differ from that of the index. As a result, any decision to execute an index-based hedge requires a framework for (1) developing an informed understanding of the basis risk, (2) appropriately calibrating the hedging instrument, and (3) evaluating hedge effectiveness. We describe such a framework and apply it to a U.K. case study, which compares the population of assured lives from the Continuous Mor- tality Investigation with the England and Wales national population. The framework is founded on an analysis of historical experience data, together with an appreciation of the contextual relationship between the two related populations in social, economic, and demographic terms. Despite the different demographic profiles, the case study provides evidence of stable long-term relationships between the mortality experiences of the two populations. This suggests the important result that high levels of hedge effectiveness should be achievable with appropriately cali- brated, static, index-based longevity hedges. Indeed, this is borne out in detailed calculations of hedge effectiveness for a hypothetical pension portfolio where the basis risk is based on the case study. A robustness check involving populations from the United States yields similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • Coughlan, Guy & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa & Ye, Yijing & Kumar, Sumit & Cairns, Andrew & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2011. "Longevity hedging 101: A framework for longevity basis risk analysis and hedge effectiveness," MPRA Paper 35743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35743
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Longevity risk; basis risk; hedge effectiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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