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Longevity risk in portfolios of pension annuities

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  • Hári, Norbert
  • De Waegenaere, Anja
  • Melenberg, Bertrand
  • Nijman, Theo E.

Abstract

We analyze the importance of longevity risk for the solvency of portfolios of pension annuities. We distinguish two types of mortality risk. Micro-longevity risk quantifies the risk related to uncertainty in the time of death if survival probabilities are known with certainty, while macro-longevity risk is due to uncertain future survival probabilities. We use a generalized two-factor Lee-Carter mortality model to produce forecasts of future mortality rates, and to assess the relative importance of micro- and macro-longevity risk for funding ratio uncertainty. The results show that if financial market risk is fully hedged so that uncertainty in future lifetime is the only source of uncertainty, pension funds are exposed to a substantial amount of risk. Systematic and non-systematic deviations from expected survival imply that, depending on the size of the portfolio, buffers that reduce the probability of underfunding to 2.5% at a 5-year horizon have to be of the order of magnitude of 7% to 8% of the initial value of the liabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Longevity risk in portfolios of pension annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 505-519, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:42:y:2008:i:2:p:505-519
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    Cited by:

    1. Boonen, Tim J., 2016. "Nash equilibria of Over-The-Counter bargaining for insurance risk redistributions: The role of a regulator," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 955-965.
    2. Mariarosaria Coppola & Valeria D'Amato, 2012. "Backtesting the solvency capital requirement for longevity risk," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 309-319, August.
    3. Stevens, Ralph & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2010. "Longevity risk in pension annuities with exchange options: The effect of product design," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 222-234, February.
    4. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.
    5. Berdin, Elia, 2016. "Interest rate risk, longevity risk and the solvency of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 23/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    6. Katja Hanewald & Thomas Post & Helmut Gründl, 2011. "Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(3), pages 458-475, July.
    7. Boonen, Tim J. & De Waegenaere, Anja & Norde, Henk, 2017. "Redistribution of longevity risk: The effect of heterogeneous mortality beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-188.
    8. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
    9. Boonen, T.J. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Norde, H.W., 2012. "Bargaining for Over-The Counter Risk Redistributions : The Case of Longevity Risk," Discussion Paper 2012-090, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Petar Jevtic' & Luca Regis, 2014. "Assessing the solvency of insurance portfolios via a continuous time cohort model," Working Papers 7/2014, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jul 2014.
    11. Alessandro Bucciol & Roel M.W.J. Beetsma, 2010. "Inter- and Intra-generational Consequences of Pension Buffer Policy under Demographic, Financial, and Economic Shocks," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 366-403, September.
    12. Helena Aro, 2013. "Systematic and non-systematic mortality risk in pension portfolios," Papers 1307.8020, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
    13. Li, Jing, 2018. "Essays on model uncertainty in financial models," Other publications TiSEM 202cd910-7ef1-4db4-94ae-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Lin, Tzuling & Wang, Chou-Wen & Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang, 2015. "Age-specific copula-AR-GARCH mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 110-124.
    15. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    16. Yang, Sharon S. & Yue, Jack C. & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2010. "Modeling longevity risks using a principal component approach: A comparison with existing stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 254-270, February.
    17. Rihab Bedoui & Islem Kedidi, 2018. "Modeling Longevity Risk using Consistent Dynamics Affine Mortality Models," Working Papers hal-01678050, HAL.
    18. Man Chung Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Michael Sherris, 2015. "Managing Systematic Mortality Risk in Life Annuities: An Application of Longevity Derivatives," Papers 1508.00090, arXiv.org.
    19. Stevens, R.S.P. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B., 2011. "Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk," Discussion Paper 2011-036, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Tomas Cipra, 2010. "Securitization of Longevity and Mortality Risk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 545-560, December.
    21. Fung, Man Chung & Ignatieva, Katja & Sherris, Michael, 2014. "Systematic mortality risk: An analysis of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 103-115.
    22. Lin, Tzuling & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2010. "An additive stochastic model of mortality rates: An application to longevity risk in reserve evaluation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 423-435, April.
    23. Jevtić, Petar & Regis, Luca, 2015. "Assessing the solvency of insurance portfolios via a continuous-time cohort model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 36-47.
    24. Elisa Luciano & Luca Regis & Elena Vigna, 2012. "Natural delta gamma hedging of longevity and interest rate risk," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 21-2011, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    25. Fedotenkov, Igor & Derkachev, Pavel, 2017. "Gender longevity gap and socioeconomic indicators in developed countries," MPRA Paper 83215, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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