On The Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Spending In The United States
We estimate the long-term impact of changes in social security and social protection spending on economic performance in the USA. We estimate a VAR model relating GDP, unemployment rates, saving rates, and social spending. Our results suggest that social spending has significant distortionary effects in the labor markets as measured by its long term effects on the unemployment rate, which translate into a detrimental effect on long-term output, this despite a positive, albeit small, effect on the gross savings rate. There are important policy implications of these results. If one considers the systems as they are, any further expansion in their generosity would have detrimental long-term effects. These detrimental effects, however, are neither an indictment of social spending or evidence against extension of benefits. What they highlight is the need to carefully consider the financing mechanisms currently used and the need to align benefits and contributions in the pension component of social security and the need to find a taxrevenue mix that is less distortionary for the unfunded benefits.
|Date of creation:||12 Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795|
Phone: (757) 221-4311
Fax: (757) 221-2390
Web page: http://www.wm.edu/economics/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-85, September.
- António Afonso & Juan González Alegre, 2007.
"Economic Growth and Budgetary Components: a Panel Assessment for the EU,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2007/29, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Juan Alegre, 2011. "Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 703-723, December.
- Afonso, António & González Alegre, Juan, 2008. "Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU," Working Paper Series 0848, European Central Bank.
- Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1999.
"Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 266-91, April.
- Ramon Marimon & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1997. "Unemployment vs. mismatch of talents: Reconsidering unemployment benefits," Economics Working Papers 211, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1998. "Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits," Seminar Papers 661, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Ramon Marimon & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1997. "Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits," NBER Working Papers 6038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994.
"The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Juan C. Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2008.
"Optimal Fiscal Policy In The Design Of Social Security Reforms,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 291-318, 02.
- Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2007. "Optimal fiscal policy in the design of Social Security reforms," Working Papers 2007-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Gonzalo, J. & Lee, T.H., 1995.
"Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships,"
38, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
- Benos, Nikos, 2009. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: empirical evidence from EU countries," MPRA Paper 19174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andrew A. Samwick, 2000. "Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 264-272, May.
- Bräuninger, Michael, 2004.
"Social Security, Unemployment, and Growth,"
HWWA Discussion Papers
266, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Daifeng He)or (Alfredo Pereira)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.