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Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal

Listed author(s):
  • Alfredo Marvão Pereira

    ()

    (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)

  • Rui M. Pereira

    ()

    (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)

In this paper we analyze the effects of infrastructure investment on economic performance in Portugal using a newly developed data set. We employ a vector autoregressive approach to estimate the elasticity and marginal products of investments on twelve different types of infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output. We find that the largest long-term accumulated effects come from investments in railroads, ports, airports, health, education, and telecommunications. For all of these infrastructures, the output multipliers are sizable enough to suggest that these investments would pay for themselves in the form of additional tax revenues. We find also that for investments in airports and health infrastructures the bulk of the effects are short-term demand side effects while for railroads and health the bulk of the effects come from long-term supply side effects. Finally, investments in health and airports show a clear pattern of decreasing marginal returns with railroads, ports, and telecommunications showing a relative stable pattern. In terms of the other infrastructure assets, we find that the economic effects of investments in municipal roads, highways, and electricity and gas are not significant or relevant. Investments in national roads, waste and waste water, and refinery infrastructures have positive economic effects but not large enough to also have a positive budgetary effects. Clearly, not all infrastructure investments are created equal along several and rather relevant dimensions from a policy perspective.

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File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp156.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 156.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 05 Feb 2015
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:156
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  1. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
  3. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
  4. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  5. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
  6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  7. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
  8. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  9. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2010. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Investments in Road Infrastructures in Portugal," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 465-492, September.
  10. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
  11. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
  12. Pereira, Alfredo M. & de Frutos, Rafael Flores, 1999. "Public Capital Accumulation and Private Sector Performance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 300-322, September.
  13. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
  14. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Oriol Roca-Sagales, 2007. "Public infrastructure and regional asymmetries in Spain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 503-519.
  15. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
  16. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  17. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
  18. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
  19. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2004. "Public highway spending and state spillovers in the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 785-788.
  20. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2003. "On the Impact of Public Investment On the Performance of U.S. Industries," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(1), pages 66-90, January.
  21. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2005. "Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 177-196, 05.
  22. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
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