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Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives

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  • Ms. Kimberly Beaton
  • Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

Abstract

This paper estimates medium-term potential growth for a country undergoing significant structural and secular changes. Our forward-looking framework, incorporating three analytical approaches for examining economic prospects, constitutes an important complement to typical backward-looking methods that filter or extrapolate historical data. In particular, the opening of the expanded Panama Canal in 2016 highlights significant structural changes underway in the Panamanian economy. We first analyze growth determinants and find that Panama is well-placed to maintain its business model, with improvements in education and governance important to support growth. Second, the current pipeline of investment projects can help sustain investment-led growth, although at a more moderate pace. Third, further development of the logistics and tourism sectors holds promise to further build on Panama’s comparative advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2017. "Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives," IMF Working Papers 2017/150, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Espinoza, Luis & Santos, Miguel Angel, 2016. "Shifting Gears: A Growth Diagnostic of Panama," Working Paper Series rwp16-045, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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    5. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Carlos Góes & Ms. Izabela Karpowicz & Mr. Troy D Matheson & Issouf Samaké & Svetlana Vtyurina, 2016. "Highways to Heaven: Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2016/185, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Panama: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/338, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pleasant, Traben & Spalding, Ana, 2021. "Development and dependency in the periphery: From bananas to tourism in Bocas del Toro, Panama," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

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