Voting behavior and the economy: evidence from Greece
This paper examines the relationship between Greek voters' behaviour and the economy, paying particular attention to the effect on two non-orthodox parties, Syriza and Golden Dawn. We use data based on actual vote-shares across 13 Greek peripheries from five general elections over the period 2000-2012. Our results are in accordance with the predictions of the punishment-sanctioning model, namely that incumbent parties are supported by voters in good times whereas voters deprecate them during bad times. In particular, we document that worsening economic conditions have led the Greek electorate to reduce support for traditional parties and move to non-traditional populist parties, like the left-wing Syriza and the ultra-nationalistic right-wing Golden Dawn. Yet we find an asymmetry between these two non-orthodox parties: while electorate support for Syriza is found to be strongly influenced by changes in GDP-growth and unemployment, this is not the case for Golden Dawn. Indeed, our estimates suggest that the increased electoral support for Golden Dawn has been mainly related to the forced fiscal-deficit cuts associated with Greece's bail-out program. This suggests that the Greek electorate does not believe that Golden Dawn can effectively address the country's major economic problems.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Patara, 3, 47921 Rimini (RN)|
Web page: http://rcea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Swank, O H, 1993. "Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-356, April.
- Swank, O.H., 1991. "Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Papers 9112-g, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, "undated". "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
- Georgios Karyotis & Wolfgang Rüdig, 2015. "Blame and Punishment? The Electoral Politics of Extreme Austerity in Greece," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 63(1), pages 2-24, 03.
- Georgios Karyotis & Wolfgang Rüdig, 2015. "Blame and Punishment? The Electoral Politics of Extreme Austerity in Greece," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-1, 03.
- Andreas Schedler, 1998. "The Normative Force of Electoral Promises," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 10(2), pages 191-214, April.
- Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
- Swank, Otto H., 1998. "Partisan Policies, Macroeconomic Performance and Political Support," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marco Savioli)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.