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Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results

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  • Batool, Irem
  • Sieg, Gernot

Abstract

Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income. Each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model. However, attrition of power reduced the vote share in election years 1961, 1994 and 1998.

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  • Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Economics Department Working Paper Series 3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tbswps:3
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Electoral cycles in active labor market policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 181-194, July.
    2. Sieg, Gernot, 2010. "Grandfather rights in the market for airport slots," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-37, January.
    3. Gürtler, Marc & Sieg, Gernot, 2006. "Crunch time: The optimal policy to avoid the "Announcement Effect" when terminating a subsidy," Working Papers FW24V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    4. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Is German domestic social policy politically controversial?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 393-418, December.
    5. Rothbauer, Julia & Sieg, Gernot, 2010. "Quality standards for passenger trains: Political majorities and environmental costs," Economics Department Working Paper Series 8, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
    6. Sören Enkelmann, 2014. "Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 999-1017, May.
    7. Gürtler Marc & Sieg Gernot, 2010. "Crunch Time: A Policy to Avoid the ‘Announcement Effect’ when Terminating a Subsidy," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 25-36, February.
    8. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    9. Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
    10. Soeren Enkelmann, 2013. "Government Popularity and the Economy First Evidence from German Micro Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 274, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    11. Sieg Gernot & Stegemann Ulrike, 2010. "Strategic Debt Management within the Stability and Growth Pact," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 61(3), pages 225-240, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bread and peace model; elections; vote share; real per capita disposable income growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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