Pakistan, politics and political business cycles
This paper studies whether in Pakistan the dynamic behavior of unemployment, inflation, budget deficit and real GDP growth is systematically affected by the timing of elections. We cover the period from 1973-2009. Our results can be summarized as follows: 1. Unemployment tends to be lower in pre-election periods and tends to increase immediately after elections, perhaps as a result of politically motivated employment schemes. 2. In ation tend to be lower in preelection periods, perhaps as a result of pre-electoral price regulation. 3. We find election year increases in the governmental budget deficit, financed by heavy government borrowings from the central bank and banking sector. 4. Real GDP growth and real governmental investment growth declines during pre and post election terms.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Pockelsstr. 14, D-38106 Braunschweig|
Web page: https://www.tu-braunschweig.de/vwl
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Loizides, Ioannis & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 2004. "Fiscal policy and political business cycles in the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 125-152, March.
- Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009.
"Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results,"
Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October.
- Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Economics Department Working Paper Series 3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
- Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005.
"Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
- Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
- John Maloney & Andrew C. Pickering & Kaddour Hadri, 2003. "Political Business Cycles and Central Bank Independence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C167-C181, March.
- Alejandro Saporiti & Jorge Streb, 2008.
"Separation of powers and political budget cycles,"
Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 329-345, October.
- Victor Ginsburgh & Philippe Michel, 1983.
"Random timing of elections and the political business cycle,"
Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 155-164, January.
- Victor Ginsburgh & Philippe Michel, 1983. "Random timing of elections and the political business cycle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/151085, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- GINSBURGH, Victor & MICHEL, Philippe, . "Random timing of elections and the political business cycle," CORE Discussion Papers RP 514, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Sieg, Gernot, 1997. "A model of partisan central banks and opportunistic political business cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 503-516, September.
- Caleiro, António, 2009. "How upside down are political business cycles when there is output persistence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 22-26, March.
- Coelho, Cesar & Veiga, Francisco Jose & Veiga, Linda G., 2006. "Political business cycles in local employment: Evidence from Portugal," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 82-87, October.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2001.
"Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
415, CESifo Group Munich.
- Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
- Henry W. Chappell & Thomas M. Havrilesky & Rob Roy McGregor, 1993. "Partisan Monetary Policies: Presidential Influence Through the Power of Appointment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 185-218.
- Gartner, Manfred, 2000. " Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 527-61, December.
- MacRae, C Duncan, 1977. "A Political Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 239-63, April.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
- Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2000.
"Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections,"
Working Papers in Economics
20, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
- Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-80, July.
- Schuknecht, Ludger, 1996. "Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 155-70.
- Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "The German political business cycle: money demand rather than monetary policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 609-631, September.
- Gernot Sieg, 2006. "A Model Of An Opportunistic-Partisan Political Business Cycle," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 242-252, 05.
- Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tbswps:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.