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Pakistan, politics and political business cycles

  • Batool, Irem
  • Sieg, Gernot

This paper studies whether in Pakistan the dynamic behavior of unemployment, inflation, budget deficit and real GDP growth is systematically affected by the timing of elections. We cover the period from 1973-2009. Our results can be summarized as follows: 1. Unemployment tends to be lower in pre-election periods and tends to increase immediately after elections, perhaps as a result of politically motivated employment schemes. 2. In ation tend to be lower in preelection periods, perhaps as a result of pre-electoral price regulation. 3. We find election year increases in the governmental budget deficit, financed by heavy government borrowings from the central bank and banking sector. 4. Real GDP growth and real governmental investment growth declines during pre and post election terms.

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Paper provided by Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department in its series Economics Department Working Paper Series with number 7.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:tbswps:7
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  1. Alejandro Saporiti & Jorge Streb, 2008. "Separation of powers and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 329-345, October.
  2. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1996. "Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 155-70.
  3. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series 415, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Caleiro, António, 2009. "How upside down are political business cycles when there is output persistence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 22-26, March.
  5. GINSBURGH, Victor & MICHEL, Philippe, . "Random timing of elections and the political business cycle," CORE Discussion Papers RP 514, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Coelho, Cesar & Veiga, Francisco Jose & Veiga, Linda G., 2006. "Political business cycles in local employment: Evidence from Portugal," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 82-87, October.
  7. Gernot Sieg, 2006. "A Model Of An Opportunistic-Partisan Political Business Cycle," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 242-252, 05.
  8. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
  9. Gartner, Manfred, 2000. " Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 527-61, December.
  10. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. repec:bla:restud:v:42:y:1975:i:2:p:169-90 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. " Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-80, July.
  13. Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Economics Department Working Paper Series 3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  14. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "The German political business cycle: money demand rather than monetary policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 609-631, September.
  15. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
  16. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:108:y:1993:i:1:p:185-218 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. John Maloney & Andrew C. Pickering & Kaddour Hadri, 2003. "Political Business Cycles and Central Bank Independence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C167-C181, March.
  18. MacRae, C Duncan, 1977. "A Political Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 239-63, April.
  19. Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
  20. Sieg, Gernot, 1997. "A model of partisan central banks and opportunistic political business cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 503-516, September.
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