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Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles

Author

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  • Gernot Sieg

    (TU Braunschweig, Economic Department, Spielmannstr, Braunschweig, Germany.)

  • Irem Batool

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Sahiwal)

Abstract

This paper studies whether in Pakistan the dynamic behaviour of unemployment, inflation, budget deficit and real GDP growth is systematically affected by the timing of elections. We cover the period from 1973-2009. Our results can be summarised as follows: (1) Unemployment tends to be lower in pre-election periods and tends to increase immediately after elections, perhaps as a result of politically motivated employment schemes. (2) Inflation tends to be lower in pre-election periods, perhaps as a result of pre-electoral price regulation. (3) We find increase in the governmental budget deficit, financed by heavy government borrowings from the central bank and banking sector during election year. (4) Real GDP growth and real governmental investment growth declines during pre and post election terms possibly as a result of inefficient resource allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:51:y:2012:i:2:p:153-166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Opportunistic Political Business Cycle; Fiscal Policy; Macro-economics; Elections; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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