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Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country

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  • Cerda, Rodrigo
  • Vergara, Rodrigo

Abstract

Summary We explore the effects of government subsidies on presidential elections in Chile in 1989-99. We use a panel with three periods (the elections of 1989, 1993, and 1999) and 229 counties. We correct for the potential simultaneity problem deriving from the fact that an incumbent facing a difficult political scenario might react by increasing subsidies to improve his/her electoral performance. Our results indicate that the greater the coverage of these types of programs (i.e., the percentage of people receiving subsidies), the higher the votes for the incumbent.

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  • Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:2470-2488
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    2. Acuña, Andrés, 2013. "Electoral involvement and appreciation for democracy under a compulsory voting rule," MPRA Paper 59398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2019. "Backcasting cement production and characterizing cement’s economic cycles for Chile 1991–2015," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1829-1852, November.
    9. Cristian Guzmán Cofré & Fabián Luengo Fernández & Paula Rojas Espinoza, 2017. "Ciclo Político Presupuestario en Chile: Un estudio exploratorio para las elecciones de alcalde 2012," Revista Actualidad Económica, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 27(93), pages 15-24, Sept-Dic.
    10. Michael Rochlitz, 2016. "Political Loyalty Vs Economic Performance: Evidence from Machine Politics in Russia’S Regions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 34/PS/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Pastén, Roberto, 2017. "The political economy of the fiscal deficit in nineteenthcentury Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Walle, Nicolas van de, 2013. "Fertilizer Subsidies and Voting Patterns: Political Economy Dimensions of Input Subsidy Programs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149580, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Roberto Pasten & James P. Cover, 2010. "The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(136), pages 169-189.
    14. Balaguer-Coll, Maria Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel & Forte, Anabel & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 94-108.
    15. Andrés A. Acuna-Duarte, 2017. "Electoral apathy among Chilean youth: New evidence for the voter registration dilemma," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 33(145), pages 341-351, November.
    16. Johnny Cotoc & Alok Johri & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2018. "Debt, Defaults and Dogma: politics and the dynamics of sovereign debt markets," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-13, McMaster University.
    17. Xiaowei Zang, 2010. "Why Are the Elite in China Motivated to Promote Growth?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-084, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
    19. Cazor Katz, Andre & Acuña, Hector & Carrasco, Diego & Carrasco, Martín, 2017. "Transferencias como Canal de Ventaja Electoral: El Caso de Chile [Discretionary Government Transfers to Catch Votes: The Case of Chile]," MPRA Paper 83668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Rodrigo Cerda & Natalia Gallardo & Rodrigo Vergara, 2017. "Political approval ratings and economic performance: evidence from Latin America," Estudios Públicos 23, Centro de Estudios Públicos.
    21. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    22. Pastén, Roberto & Cover, James P., 2015. "Tax tilting and politics: Some theory and evidence for Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 208-218.
    23. Balaguer-Coll, María Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel, 2013. "El efecto del gasto público sobre las posibilidades de reelección de los gobiernos locales," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 74-80.
    24. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Contreras, Javier, 2015. "Back-splicing of cement production and characterization of its economic cycle: The case of Chile (1991-2015)," MPRA Paper 67387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2015.

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