IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v132y2007i1p125-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Cerda
  • Rodrigo Vergara

Abstract

This paper explores the influence of economic variables in Chilean presidential elections. We use a panel where the dependent variable corresponds to the share of the vote obtained by the incumbent at a municipal level in the presidential elections of 1989, 1993 and 1999. We focus on the unemployment rate and the output gap and find that both have a significant influence on the vote. We also find that if the mayor is from the same coalition as the incumbent, people will further punish the incumbent when regional unemployment is above national unemployment. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2007. "Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 125-136, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:132:y:2007:i:1:p:125-136
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-006-9138-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-006-9138-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11127-006-9138-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Sam Peltzman, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 327-361.
    3. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Government Subsidies and Political Elections: Evidence for Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 294, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. Peltzman, Sam, 1990. "How Efficient Is the Voting Market?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 27-63, April.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    6. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-167, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chiu, Eric M.P., 2020. "Reexamining the Macroeconomic Policy Cycle in Taiwan: Evidence from the Central Bank’s Monetary Reaction Function," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 89-110, December.
    2. Sakurai, Sergio N. & Menezes, Naercio A., 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Insper Working Papers wpe_117, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    3. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 317-334, June.
    4. Silva-Escobar, Daniel, 2022. "Conducta electoral oportunista y determinantes económicos de la reelección de alcaldes/as en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 10, Estudios Nueva Economía.
    5. Corvalan, Alejandro & Cox, Paulo & Osorio, Rodrigo, 2018. "Indirect political budget cycles: Evidence from Chilean municipalities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Alex Luiz Ferreira & Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2013. "Personal charisma or the economy?: Macroeconomic indicators of presidential approval ratings in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(3–4), pages 214-232.
    7. Banaszewska, Monika & Bischoff, Ivo, 2021. "Grants-in-aid and election outcomes in recipient jurisdictions: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Lucie Sedmihradská & Rudolf Kubík & Jakub Haas, 2011. "Political Business Cycle in Czech Municipalities," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(1), pages 59-70.
    9. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 301-314, October.
    10. Sharlywest Uwabor Eboigbe & Innocent Okwuosa, 2018. "Test of Linkage between Governance Style and National Economic Indices," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 226-238, January.
    11. Monika Banaszewska & Ivo Bischoff, 2018. "Grants-in-aid and the prospect of re-election: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201822, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. García, Israel & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
    14. Roberto Pasten & James P. Cover, 2010. "The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(136), pages 169-189.
    15. Balaguer-Coll, Maria Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel & Forte, Anabel & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 94-108.
    16. Andrés A. Acuna-Duarte, 2017. "Electoral apathy among Chilean youth: New evidence for the voter registration dilemma," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 33(145), pages 341-351, November.
    17. González Felipe, 2013. "Can Land Reform Avoid a Left Turn? Evidence from Chile after the Cuban Revolution," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 31-72, April.
    18. Rodrigo Cerda & Natalia Gallardo & Rodrigo Vergara, 2017. "Political approval ratings and economic performance: evidence from Latin America," Estudios Públicos 23, Centro de Estudios Públicos.
    19. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    20. Balaguer-Coll, María Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel, 2013. "El efecto del gasto público sobre las posibilidades de reelección de los gobiernos locales," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 74-80.
    21. Felipe González, 2010. "Land Reform and Government Support: Voting Incentives in the Countryside," Working Papers ClioLab 12, EH Clio Lab. Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
    2. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    3. Daniel J. Benjamin & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2009. "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 523-536, August.
    4. Alberto Porto & Natalia Porto, 2000. "Influencia de las condiciones económicas y fiscales sobre los resultados electorales provinciales y municipales," IIE, Working Papers 026, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "A theory of political cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1166-1186, May.
    6. Rodrigo Cerda & Natalia Gallardo & Rodrigo Vergara, 2017. "Political approval ratings and economic performance: evidence from Latin America," Estudios Públicos 23, Centro de Estudios Públicos.
    7. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    8. Amanat ALI* & Eatzaz AHMAD** & BILAWAL***, 2019. "SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEPRIVATIONS AND VOTERS’ PREFERENCES: A District Level Analysis," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 29(2), pages 181-199.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
    10. Boryana Dimitrova, 2000. "An Empirical Model of Voting Behavior in the Bulgarian Parliamentary Elections of 1994," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 44(2), pages 71-77, October.
    11. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    12. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    14. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
    16. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CAMA Working Papers 2011-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Alberto Porto, 2004. "Finanzas Públicas Locales en la Argentina," IIE, Working Papers 057, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    18. Alessandra Bonfiglioli and Gino Gancia, 2010. "The Political Cost of Reforms," Working Papers 507, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Duha Altindag & Naci Mocan, 2010. "Joblessness and Perceptions about the Effectiveness of Democracy," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 99-123, June.
    20. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:132:y:2007:i:1:p:125-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.