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Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy

  • Rodrigo Cerda

    ()

  • Rodrigo Vergara

    ()

This paper explores the influence of economic variables in Chilean presidential elections. We use a panel where the dependent variable corresponds to the share of the vote obtained by the incumbent at a municipal level in the presidential elections of 1989, 1993 and 1999. We focus on the unemployment rate and the output gap and find that both have a significant influence on the vote. We also find that if the mayor is from the same coalition as the incumbent, people will further punish the incumbent when regional unemployment is above national unemployment. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-006-9138-5
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 132 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 125-136

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:132:y:2007:i:1:p:125-136
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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  1. Sam Peltzman, 1988. "How Efficient Is the Voting Market?," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 53, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  2. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
  3. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Government Subsidies and Political Elections: Evidence for Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 294, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  4. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
  5. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-67, May.
  6. Peltzman, Sam, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 327-61, May.
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